The Sept. 24–26 BIG DATA POLL shows Democrat James Talarico holding a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, though the margin tightens after undecided voters are pressed. The survey has a ±4 percentage point sampling error and highlights a highly engaged electorate; Paxton leads among the most enthusiastic voters while Talarico dominates likely Hispanic voters. Talarico leads in reported fundraising, but Republican outside groups have poured tens of millions into late advertising.
Talarico Holds Slim Lead Over Paxton as GOP Floods Texas With Late Ad Spending
Ken Paxton and James Talarico (AP)
Democrat James Talarico maintains a narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the closely watched Texas U.S. Senate contest, according to a BIG DATA POLL survey conducted Sept. 24–26 and released Sunday.
The poll found Talarico ahead 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters and 44.6% to 41.6% among likely voters. When undecided respondents were pressed to choose, the margin tightened to roughly two points: 46.4% to 43.8% among registered voters and 46.8% to 44.9% among likely voters. The survey's overall sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Voter Intensity and Subgroup Trends
The data point to a highly engaged electorate. Among respondents who described themselves as "extremely enthusiastic" about voting, Paxton narrowly led 48.2% to 47.5%. Among the subset of likely voters most certain to cast a ballot, Paxton held a slimmer edge of 46.7% to 46.5%.
By contrast, Talarico performs strongly with voters who backed the opposite party in 2024, holding a roughly three-to-one advantage (15.6% to 4.9%). Hispanic turnout could be decisive: a separate Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision survey found Talarico leading Paxton 63% to 30% among likely Hispanic voters, including 73% support among Hispanic independents.
Money and Momentum
Fundraising so far favors Talarico. His campaign reported raising $72 million from the start of 2025 through June, compared with $16.8 million for Paxton, per figures compiled by The Texas Tribune. Republican-aligned outside groups have responded by increasing late spending: AdImpact data reported by The Wall Street Journal show GOP-aligned advertisers spent about $62 million supporting Paxton during the first 18 days of September versus roughly $17 million for Talarico.
"Republicans were grossly outspent prior to Labor Day, and now they have unleashed tens of millions of dollars in the Lone Star State in the final weeks of the campaign to try to close the gap," BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said.
The race has drawn national attention: the Cook Political Report moved the contest from "Lean Republican" to a toss-up in August, and the RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows Talarico at 47.6% and Paxton at 44.6%, a three-point edge for the Democrat. Individual recent polls have shown Talarico leading by margins of one to six points.
With close margins, a sizable undecided cohort and intense late spending, the Texas Senate race remains competitive and could hinge on turnout dynamics—especially among Hispanic and highly motivated voters.
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