Fox News finds James Talarico narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton, 51% to 49%, in a race within the poll's margin of error. Fifty-one percent of Texans said they were "extremely" or "very" concerned that Paxton is too close to Donald Trump, a factor that may be aiding Talarico. Other polls and prediction markets show a similarly tight contest, with sharp divides between MAGA and non‑MAGA Republicans and continued scrutiny of both candidates' records.
Fox News Poll: Talarico Narrowly Leads as 51% Say Paxton Is Too Close to Trump
James Talarico speaking during an interview at a "Love Thy Neighbor" Statewide Grocery Drive on September 09, 2026 in Dallas, Texas (left) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton watching as President Donald Trump speaks during a visit to the Peterbilt Motors truck plant on October 01, 2026 in Denton, Texas (right). Getty/Brandon Bell/Kevin Dietsch
A new Fox News survey suggests a tight Texas Senate race, with Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton amid voter concerns that Paxton is closely allied with former President Donald Trump.
Poll Results and Methodology
Fox News surveyed 1,203 registered Texas voters, including 881 likely voters, from Sept. 24–28. The poll carries a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. In the head-to-head matchup, Talarico led Paxton 51% to 49%—a gap that falls within the poll's margin of error.
Voter Concern Over Paxton’s Ties To Trump
Voters expressed notable concern about Paxton's relationship with Trump. Thirty-seven percent said they were "extremely concerned" and 14% said they were "very concerned" that Paxton is too close to Trump. After rounding, 51% were "extremely" or "very" concerned, 48% were "not very" or "not at all" concerned, and 1% said "don't know."
Breakdown By Party Faction
Party loyalty remains strong but uneven. Ninety-nine percent of self-identified Democrats backed Talarico, while 90% of Republicans backed Paxton. Inside the GOP, Paxton drew 96% support from self-described "MAGA" Republicans, but only 78% support from non‑MAGA Republicans—22% of that group said they would back Talarico.
Other Polls, Markets And Context
Other recent surveys point to a similarly close contest. A Rasmussen Reports poll of 1,128 likely voters (Sept. 28–29) put Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 45% (±3 points). A Texas Public Opinion Research poll (Sept. 19–22) showed Talarico up by five points, 49% to 44% (±3.6 points). As of Oct. 2, the prediction market Polymarket gave Talarico roughly a 62% chance of winning the seat.
Campaign Dynamics and Controversies
The race has been shaped by vocal endorsements, leaked audio and policy differences. President Trump rallied for Paxton on Oct. 1 at the Peterbilt Motors plant in Denton, appearing alongside retired basketball figure Dennis Rodman. During remarks, Trump praised Paxton's loyalty while also quipping about him:
"Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he could be a pain in the a** sometimes, to be honest."
Separately, The New York Times published leaked audio reportedly of Paxton telling donors that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas hurt his numbers. Paxton advisor Nick Maddux dismissed the report as "manipulated nonsense."
Policy Differences
On policy, the candidates have drawn clear contrasts. Talarico supports an "AI Dividend" to share gains from artificial intelligence and favors legalizing and regulating adult marijuana, calling Texas' current rules a "gift to the drug cartels." Paxton has pushed for limits on Chinese technology in U.S. data centers, stronger accountability for AI products that endanger children, and has sued cities over local cannabis decriminalization efforts.
Bottom Line
The race remains one of the most closely watched midterm contests. Polls show a narrow, often margin-of-error lead for Talarico, while voter concern about Paxton’s closeness to Trump could be influencing undecided and crossover voters—especially among non‑MAGA Republicans.
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