New Poll Shows Texas Senate and Governor Races Competitive as Democrats Gain Ground

A new Marist Poll released Sept. 23 finds Texas Democrats within reach in two high-profile statewide contests this November, a notable development in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

The survey of 1,139 registered Texas voters conducted Sept. 17–20 has a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points. It shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 44% in the U.S. Senate contest — a gap that lies outside the poll's margin of error. In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 49% to 46%, a difference that falls within the margin of error and therefore constitutes a statistical tie.

What Voters Say

The Marist survey finds strong independent support for the Democratic contenders: 55% of independents favor Talarico and 52% favor Hinojosa. Despite Talarico's lead, a majority of respondents (52%) still expect Paxton to win the Senate race, and 68% expect Abbott to be reelected as governor.

On a generic congressional ballot, respondents tilt toward Democrats, 49% to 46% for Republicans, although 60% of voters nonetheless believe the Republican candidate will prevail in congressional contests. Marist also compared current attitudes to October 2024 figures from the Harris-Trump presidential election cycle, when Republicans led Democrats on the generic ballot by seven points (53% to 46%).

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to West Texas Republicans and voters at his U.S. Senate campaign stop in Lubbock, Texas on September 19, 2026. Paxton is set to face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the November 2026 elections.

Views on Trump and Personal Finances

The poll probes how former President Donald Trump factors into congressional voting: 39% of Texas voters say their vote is mostly motivated by opposition to Trump, 25% say it is mostly motivated by support for him, and 34% say Trump is not a factor. Among those who say Trump is not a factor, a majority approve of his job performance.

On pocketbook issues, 38% of Texas voters say their personal finances have worsened over the past year, another 38% say things have stayed about the same, and 23% say their finances have improved. The poll also finds a partisan split on finances: 60% of Democrats say their family finances have worsened over the last 12 months versus 17% of Republicans who say the same.

Other September Polls

Several other September polls show similarly close Senate and gubernatorial contests across the state:

• Senate: Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%; ReconMR (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%; Emerson (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%; Mason-Dixon (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%; SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%; AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%; N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.
• Governor: Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%; Emerson (Sept. 17) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%; ReconMR (Sept. 17) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 45%; Mason-Dixon (Sept. 15) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 41%; SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 44%; N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Abbott 47%, Hinojosa 47%.

As the campaign season heads into its final stretch, these surveys indicate both statewide contests in Texas are tighter than in recent cycles, driven in part by strong independent support for Democratic candidates even as many voters still expect Republican victories.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and regional papers in Texas. Email tips to [email protected].