A Fox News poll (Oct. 1) of 1,203 likely Texas voters (Sept. 24–28) finds Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton, 51% to 49%. Talarico posts stronger favorability (52% favorable vs. 40% for Paxton) and leads among Black, Hispanic, younger and moderate voters. Paxton leads primarily with white evangelicals, non-college white men, rural voters and seniors. Issue breakdowns show Talarico ahead on the economy and artificial intelligence, while Paxton leads on immigration.
Fox News Poll Shows Tight Texas Senate Race — Talarico Edges Paxton 51%–49%
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico campaigns in Houston on Sept. 13, 2026.
A Fox News poll released Oct. 1 shows the Texas U.S. Senate contest narrowing in the final weeks before Election Day, with Democrat James Talarico holding a slim two-point edge over Republican Ken Paxton, 51% to 49%.
Poll Details
The survey of 1,203 likely Texas voters was conducted Sept. 24–28. Its results add to mounting signs that Texas — long considered reliably Republican — could play a decisive role in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate this November.
Favorability And Demographics
Talarico posts stronger overall favorability: 52% of respondents view him favorably while 44% view him unfavorably. Paxton’s ratings are weaker, with 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable.
By demographic group, Talarico leads decisively among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under 35 (62%). Paxton performs best with white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters 65 and older (55%).
Issue Priorities
On key issues that voters say will shape their choice, Talarico leads by 19 points among voters who list the economy as their top concern and by 18 points among those who prioritize artificial intelligence. He also holds a smaller, six-point advantage among voters who say former President Donald Trump will be central to their vote. Paxton holds a 20-point advantage with voters who identify immigration as their primary concern.
Debate Challenge
The poll comes after Talarico publicly challenged Paxton to a debate; Paxton has not publicly accepted the invitation.
Recent September Polls
- Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
- ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%
- Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
- Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%
- SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%
- AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%
- N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%
Why it matters: A competitive outcome in Texas could influence which party controls the U.S. Senate. Close statewide polling increases the likelihood both campaigns will target turnout and messaging in the final days before Nov. 3.
This story originally appeared on USA TODAY.
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