Prediction markets and several major forecasters have shifted the Texas U.S. Senate outlook toward Democrat James Talarico, with Kalshi and Polymarket putting him near 59–60% and Nate Silver's model favoring Talarico at roughly 70%. Polling aggregates show a tight race—RealClearPolitics currently lists Talarico at 47.6% and Ken Paxton at 45%. Analysts cite Talarico's fundraising and Paxton's controversies as contributing factors, and a Talarico win would be the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988.
Prediction Markets, Polls and Forecasters Shift Texas Senate Race Toward Democrats as Talarico Gains Ground
File photo: James Talarico speaks during a campaign rally at the Cailloux Theater on August 31, 2026 in Kerrville, Texas.
Prediction markets and major election forecasters have moved the outlook for the Texas U.S. Senate contest, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico closing the gap on Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. The shift is notable given Texas' long-standing Republican lean, but forecasters cite fundraising, polling and questions about Paxton's record as factors shaping the race.
What the Markets and Forecasters Say
Kalshi: A futures-style prediction market currently assigns Talarico about a 59% chance of winning the November general election versus 41% for Paxton.
Polymarket: Shows a similar split, listing Talarico near 60% and Paxton near 41% (market shares can sometimes sum to more than 100% because of spreads).
Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin): Silver's model now places Texas in the "Lean Democrat" column, giving Talarico roughly a 70% chance and Paxton about 30%.
Legacy Forecasters: Both Fox News' Power Rankings and The Cook Political Report recently moved the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up."
"Texas is still a very red state," Silver wrote on August 25, noting that his model factors in Paxton's "laundry list of scandals," Talarico's fundraising strength and the polling evidence to justify a modest Democratic edge.
Polling and Aggregates
Polling averages show a competitive contest. RealClearPolitics' aggregate currently lists Talarico at 47.6% and Paxton at 45%. Individual polls vary, but overall the trend has tightened compared with earlier expectations that favored Republicans by larger margins.
Campaign Dynamics
The race has sharpened on the campaign trail and on social media. Talarico has focused his message on affordability and economic issues while positioning himself as a faith-driven, pragmatic Democrat. Paxton has emphasized conservative credentials and has been publicly aligned with former President Donald Trump, who endorsed his Senate bid.
Paxton enters the general election with a complicated public record: he was impeached in 2023 and later acquitted, faced a securities-fraud case resolved in 2024, and has been the subject of additional bribery and corruption allegations as well as admitting to an extramarital affair. Paxton has denied wrongdoing in these matters. The controversy surrounding his tenure is a central consideration for many forecasters and voters.
The campaign has also featured sharp exchanges: Talarico publicly mocked a now-deleted Paxton social post that misspelled the Houston-area community of Cypress as "Cyprus," writing, "It's Cypress, not 'Cyprus.' But for all the time you spend on luxury vacations in Europe, it's no surprise you don't know Texas."
Why This Matters
If Talarico wins, he would be the first Democrat to win a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1988. Republicans have also carried Texas in every presidential election since 1980, underscoring how notable a Democratic Senate victory would be in the state.
File photo: James Talarico speaks during a campaign rally at the Cailloux Theater on August 31, 2026, in Kerrville, Texas.
Newsweek contacted both campaigns by email outside regular working hours and is awaiting responses.
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