James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton has tightened slightly in recent Texas polls, while the number of undecided voters has fallen. Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico ahead 49%–44% (Sept. 19–22; n=1,007; MOE ±3.6), down from a 6-point lead in August. A Texas Southern University survey (Sept. 15–19; n=1,800; MOE ±2.31) shows a 47%–46% margin. Fundraising filings through June 30 show Talarico has outraised Paxton by roughly $32m to $9.15m, and the race remains close enough that margins of error matter.
Talarico’s Lead Narrows as Undecided Voters Decline in Tight Texas Senate Race
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaking during a "Talarico for Texas: Frontera Tour" campaign news conference at the U.S. Customs and Border Protection – World Trade Bridge on July 14, 2026 in Laredo, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
James Talarico’s edge over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has tightened slightly in two recent polls, even as the share of undecided voters has fallen — a development that could matter in a competitive race with implications for control of the U.S. Senate.
Latest Polls: Small Shifts, But Still Within Margins
Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters between Sept. 19 and 22 and found Talarico leading 49% to Paxton’s 44% (margin of error ±3.6 percentage points). That is down from a 6-point advantage in an Aug. 21–24 survey of 1,000 likely voters (48%–42%). The share of undecided voters in that series dropped from 7% in August to 3% in the latest poll; Libertarian Ted Brown gained two points.
Texas Southern University fielded a survey of 1,800 likely voters Sept. 15–19 that shows a narrower 47%–46% lead for Talarico, with Brown at 3% (margin of error ±2.31%). An earlier TSU poll of 1,200 likely voters from July 27–30 recorded Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45%, with undecided voters declining from 6% to 4% between the two TSU surveys. In both poll series the small changes in Talarico’s lead fall within reported margins of error.
Other Recent Polls
Across eight pollsters Talarico leads overall, but several surveys are within their respective margins of error and thus the contest remains competitive. Examples include an Emerson College poll (Sept. 12–14) showing Talarico up 47% to 46% (n=1,000; MOE ±3%), an AARP survey (Aug. 30–Sept. 1) showing a four-point advantage (n=895; MOE ±3.3%), and a YouGov/Univision poll (Aug. 27–Sept. 4) that put Talarico ahead by five points (n=1,000; MOE ±3.6%).
Fundraising, Debate Challenge And What It Means
Federal Election Commission filings through June 30 show the Talarico campaign raised $31,853,507 versus $9,147,100 for Paxton. FEC data also indicate 45% of Talarico’s donations came from out of state — with California the largest out-of-state source — compared with 17.1% for Paxton.
At the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Talarico publicly challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News, accusing the attorney general of avoiding public forums all year. He said:
"He's been dodging debates all year. So let's go to Ken Paxton's safe space. Let's do Bret Baier on Fox News. I'll go into the lion's den."
Newsweek contacted both the Talarico and Paxton campaigns by email on Saturday outside regular business hours for comment.
Why This Matters
While Talarico currently leads in a majority of recent polls, the narrow margins and recent declines in undecided voters mean the race remains competitive and could be decided by late shifts among voters or turnout. A Democratic pickup in Texas would be a significant boost to Democrats’ efforts to gain control of the Senate.
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