Multiple recent polls put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, led by ReconMR's 49%–43% finding among likely voters. Independents are tilting strongly toward Talarico, and surveys from Emerson, Telemundo/Mason-Dixon, SoCal Strategies, AARP, and N+ Univision/YouGov report similar narrow advantages. Early voting begins Oct. 19 ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.
Talarico Leads Paxton in Multiple Texas Polls as Early Voting Nears
Ken Paxton (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images) and James Talrico (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP via Getty Images)
A string of recent surveys shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico pulling ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the competitive U.S. Senate race in Texas, with early voting just weeks away.
ReconMR Finds a Six-Point Edge
Nonpartisan Texas pollster ReconMR reported Sept. 8–11 that Talarico leads Paxton 49% to 43% among 614 likely voters contacted by phone and text; the survey was weighted to match state demographics and has a margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points. ReconMR previously showed Talarico at 47% to Paxton’s 43% in July and a 46% tie in June.
Lindsey Hendrensen, ReconMR senior research analyst: "The race for U.S. Senate is heating up as Talarico extends his lead over Paxton." Independents now back Talarico 64% to 24%, up from 53% to 30% in July.
Other Recent Polls
Five additional surveys in recent weeks also show Talarico with a narrow advantage:
- Emerson College (Nexstar-sponsored): 47% Talarico, 46% Paxton (1,000 likely voters online, Sept. 12–14; ±3 pts).
- Telemundo / Mason-Dixon (reported by Newsweek): 46% Talarico, 43% Paxton (625 registered voters, Sept. 8–10; ±4 pts).
- SoCal Strategies: 50% Talarico, 45% Paxton (649 likely voters, Sept. 12–13; opt-in panel).
- AARP (Fabrizio Ward / Impact Research): 48% Talarico, 44% Paxton (895 likely voters, Aug. 30–Sept. 1; ±3.3 pts). Voters 50 and older favored Paxton, 53% to 40%.
- N+ Univision / YouGov: 48% Talarico, 43% Paxton, 7% undecided (1,000 registered voters online, Aug. 27–Sept. 4; non-probability survey; equiv. MOE ≈ ±3.6 pts). Hispanic respondents favored Talarico, 56% to 37%.
Emerson's executive director Spencer Kimball highlighted a notable shift among Hispanic voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024: they now "break for Talarico by 15 points, 54% to 39%."
Context and Timeline
Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination outright on March 3, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Paxton prevailed in the Republican runoff on May 26 against then-Sen. John Cornyn after a late endorsement from former President Donald Trump. No Democrat has won a statewide Texas office since 1994, making any Democratic statewide lead notable.
Key dates: Early voting for the Nov. 3 general election begins Oct. 19.
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