Talarico Outraises Paxton as Tens of Millions in Outside Ads Flood Texas Senate Race

Texas state representative James Talarico's official U.S. Senate campaign reported a far larger war chest than incumbent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, underscoring how competitive and nationally watched this race has become.

FEC Totals Through June 30: Talarico's campaign reported $31,853,507 in receipts, while Paxton's official campaign reported $9,147,100.

Where The Money Came From

Of the $31.85 million Talarico raised, $17,529,508—about 55 percent—originated from Texas donors; the remainder came from other states. The largest out-of-state sources for Talarico were California ($3,579,701), New York ($1,482,533), Massachusetts ($918,007), Washington ($728,018) and Illinois ($636,625).

Paxton's campaign reported that 82.9 percent of its $9.15 million came from Texas residents. Outside Texas, his top state contributors were Florida ($174,463), California ($135,492), Utah ($134,597), Arizona ($69,376) and Pennsylvania ($67,966).

Independent Spending and Outside Groups

FEC figures reflect only money raised by the candidates' official campaign committees; individual contributions to a candidate are capped (the filings cited a $3,500 per candidate per election cap). They do not include independent expenditures by outside groups or Super PACs, which face far looser limits.

Data from media-tracking firm AdImpact show substantial independent spending on behalf of Paxton. A Republican-aligned group tied to the Senate Leadership Fund, Texas PAC, spent more than $51 million reserving broadcast TV advertising in major Texas markets, according to reporting by the Texas Tribune citing AdImpact. America PAC—reported to have support from Elon Musk—spent roughly $2.6 million on TV ads backing Paxton. Pro-Trump group MAGA Inc. reserved about $10 million in Texas advertising and later transferred an additional $5 million to Paxton's campaign.

AdImpact also estimates pro-Democratic groups reserved about $43.7 million in ad inventory, much of it funded directly or indirectly by Talarico's campaign and allied groups.

Polling And Political Context

Democrats view a potential flip of a Texas Senate seat—Texas last elected a Democratic senator in 1988—as a critical path to winning control of the chamber in the November midterms. Recent polling suggests a tight race: an Emerson College poll of 1,000 Texas voters (Sept. 12–14) showed 47 percent for Talarico and 46 percent for Paxton (±3 points), while an AARP survey of 895 likely voters (Aug. 30–Sept. 1) found Talarico ahead by four points (±3.3 points). Several poll results are within their margins of error, making the contest highly competitive.

Alex Latcham, head of the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, told Newsweek by email: "The Republican Party is united to elect Ken Paxton and keep Texas red in November. Senate Leadership Fund's investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico."

The combination of strong fundraising by the Talarico campaign, heavy in-state support for Paxton, and massive independent ad buys on both sides has turned this race into a national battleground. With large sums being raised and spent both inside and outside Texas, the outcome is likely to hinge on turnout, late advertising, and messaging in the weeks leading to the election.