The article reports that a Republican political action committee spent $131 million over 17 days to support Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate bid — about $7.7 million per day, per filings reviewed by Newsweek. The spending spike arrives as polls and market prices show Democrat James Talarico leading ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. Betting markets on Polymarket and Kalshi currently favor Talarico, but market prices reflect trader expectations and are not definitive forecasts.
GOP PAC Spent $131M in 17 Days to Back Ken Paxton — Roughly $7.7M a Day as Talarico Leads in Polls
Ken Paxton speaking at the Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, in September.
A Republican political action committee reported spending $131 million over a 17-day period to support Ken Paxton’s bid for the U.S. Senate from Texas — an average of about $7.7 million per day, according to official filings reviewed by Newsweek.
The surge in outside spending comes as many polls show Paxton trailing Democratic challenger James Talarico with the Nov. 3 midterm election approaching. The extraordinary pace and scale of the investment underscore Republican concern about holding the seat and preserving the party’s Senate majority.
Why the Big Spend?
Texas has long been a cornerstone of the Republican Senate majority. Paxton’s vulnerability, however, has prompted allied groups to deploy massive resources quickly to shore up his campaign. Outside spending on this scale signals that national Republican strategists view the race as both competitive and consequential.
Who Is James Talarico? Talarico, a former Presbyterian seminarian and middle school teacher, is campaigning to become the first Democrat in decades to win a Texas Senate seat. A Talarico victory would be a significant pickup for Democrats in their push to take control of the Senate.
Market Signals
Market-based betting prices currently favor Talarico. On Polymarket, traders price Talarico’s probability of winning at about 63% versus 38% for Paxton, with more than $1.6 million traded on that market. On Kalshi, traders give Talarico roughly a 62% chance of victory compared with a 42% chance for Paxton.
These market prices represent trader expectations and can shift rapidly in response to new polling, campaign events or large transactions; they should not be interpreted as definitive election forecasts.
This is a developing story and more details may emerge as both campaigns and outside groups continue to spend and advertise in the closing weeks before the election.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, an AI assistant, to help produce reporting for the original story.
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