New AARP polling shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican AG Ken Paxton 48% to 44% among nearly 900 likely Texas voters (±3.3%). Paxton holds a 53%–40% advantage among voters 50 and older, who also report higher motivation to vote. Cost-of-living pressures and retirement concerns—Social Security and Medicare—are driving older voter preferences. The poll follows a GOP convention where a derogatory nickname for Talarico was widely used; Talarico's campaign has embraced the moniker as merchandise.
Talarico Edges Paxton in Tight Texas Senate Race, New AARP Poll Finds
Texas State Representatives James Talarico and John Bucy III (D-TX) converse during a session as Democratic lawmakers, who left the state to deny Republicans the opportunity to redraw the state's 38 congressional districts, begin returning to the Texas State Capitol in Austin, Texas on Aug. 20, 2025.(Sergio Flores, REUTERS)
James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in the competitive U.S. Senate race in Texas, according to a new AARP survey of likely voters.
Poll Details
The AARP poll of nearly 900 likely voters, released Sept. 10, shows Talarico ahead 48% to 44%. The interviews were conducted Aug. 30–Sept. 1 and the survey carries a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
Age Gap And Voter Motivation
While Talarico leads overall, Paxton maintains a significant advantage among voters aged 50 and older, leading 53% to 40% in that cohort—a 13-point margin. The poll found older voters are more motivated: 84% of respondents 50+ described themselves as "extremely" likely to vote, compared with 70% of voters under 50.
Issues Driving Choices
Rising costs for everyday essentials—groceries, health care and gasoline—rank high on voters' lists across age groups. For those 50 and older, retirement-related concerns are especially salient: Social Security, Medicare and policies to help older adults remain independent at home were top priorities.
Nearly 60% of respondents said Social Security is or will become a major source of household income. Large majorities reported they are more likely to support candidates who commit to protecting earned Social Security benefits, expanding Medicare prescription drug price negotiations, and supporting family caregivers.
Campaign And Convention Notes
The AARP poll was published days after the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where former President Donald Trump and other GOP figures repeatedly used the nickname "Talafreako" for Talarico—a label tied to attacks by Paxton. At the event, Trump urged attendees to back Paxton and pledged, "I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot just one more time."
Donald Trump: "I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot just one more time."
Turning the insult into a campaign moment, Talarico's team has begun selling 'I'm A Talafreako' shirts on its online store, available in black and white starting at $36. Talarico also referenced the nickname during an interview on the Jimmy Kimmel show.
Context: A recent N+ Univision poll of 1,000 Texas voters conducted Aug. 27–Sept. 4 similarly showed Talarico ahead, 48% to 43%, with 7% undecided. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a true toss-up.
Democratic Texas State Rep. James Talarico speaks during a campaign launch rally on Sept. 9, 2025 in Round Rock, Texas. Rep. Talarico announced earlier today that he will be running for U.S. Senate in Texas.(Brandon Bell, Getty Images)
James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate seat representing Texas, holds a press conference outside an ICE detention center during a visit as part of his "Take Back Texas" tour, in El Paso, Texas on Feb. 21, 2026.(Jose Luis Gonzalez, REUTERS)
Texas Rep. James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate seat representing Texas, gives an interview aboard his campaign bus in El Paso on Feb. 21, 2026.(Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
Campaign pins are displayed at a rally for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate for Texas, James Talarico, during his "Take Back Texas" tour ahead of the primary elections that will determine his party's nominee for the 2026 midterms, in El Paso, Texas on Feb. 21, 2026.(Jose Luis Gonzalez, REUTERS)
Democratic Texas State Rep. James Talarico speaks to supporters at the Fire Fighters Hall Feb. 21, 2026 in El Paso, Texas. Talarico faces Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the March 3rd primary.(Alberto Silva Fernandez, Getty Images)
Texas State Representative James Talarico poses for a selfie with Jordan Rhoads on February 26, 2026 in Richardson, Texas. Talarico is facing off against Jasmine Crockett in Tuesday's democratic senate primary.(Richard Rodriguez, Getty Images)
James Talarico delivers his remarks during his campaign rally in San Angelo Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025. Talarico is running to be the Democratic PartyÕs nominee in 2026 for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn.(Ronald W. Erdrich, Reporter-News via USA TODAY NETWORK)
James Talarico greets supporters onstage at the Brooks and Bates Theatre at the start of his rally in San Angelo Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025.(Ronald W. Erdrich, Reporter-News via USA TODAY NETWORK)
State Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, speaks during a campaign stop at El Paso's Firefighters Hall on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. Talarico is vying to unseat U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-TX, in the November 2026 General Election.(Adam Powell, El Paso Times via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Texas Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during his campaign rally Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025 at The Shop Event Venue in Amarillo.(Michael Cuviello, Amarillo Globe-News via USA TODAY NETWORK)
James Talarico, a candidate in the Democratic primary for Texas' U.S. Senate seat and a current Texas State Representative, speaks to the Lubbock community at the Historic Watson Building during his Take Back Texas Tour, Feb. 22, 2026, in Lubbock.(Jacob Lujan, for the Avalanche-Journal via USA TODAY NETWORK)
James Talarico, a candidate in the Democratic primary for Texas' U.S. Senate seat and a current Texas State Representative, speaks to the Lubbock community at the Historic Watson Building during his Take Back Texas Tour, Feb. 22, 2026, in Lubbock.(Jacob Lujan, for the Avalanche-Journal via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D-TX) takes part in a campaign event outside Round Rock Donuts on March 3, 2026 in Talarico's hometown of Round Rock, Texas. Texans went to the polls to vote for Democratic and Republican primary candidates ahead of November's midterm elections.(John Moore, Getty Images)
Supporters of Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D-TX) cheer when seeing early results on election night March 3, 2026 in Austin, Texas. Texans went to the polls to vote for Democratic and Republican primary candidates ahead of November's midterm elections.(John Moore, Getty Images)
Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D-TX) speaks to supporters at a campaign event on March 3, 2026 in Talarico's hometown of Round Rock, Texas. Texans went to the polls to vote for Democratic and Republican primary candidates ahead of November's midterm elections.(John Moore, Getty Images)
Supporters of Democratic U.S. Senate candidate for Texas, James Talarico, watch as primary election results are reported on MS NOW during Talarico's primary election night party in Austin, Texas on March 3, 2026.(Joel Angel Juarez, REUTERS)
Democratic Texas lawmaker James Talarico, left, will face Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the election for the U.S. Senate on Nov. 3, 2026.
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