The latest polls show Democrat James Talarico holding a slim 46%–43% lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas — a margin within the Mason-Dixon poll's ±4-point error and effectively a toss-up. Multiple recent surveys and prediction markets tilt slightly toward Talarico, but the race remains competitive across gender, age and region. Paxton's long-running legal and ethical controversies contrast with Republican attacks on Talarico's faith-related remarks. With under 50 days until Nov. 3, both campaigns are intensifying outreach and spending.
Tight Race in Texas: New Poll Puts James Talarico Slightly Ahead of Ken Paxton as Stakes Rise
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton arrives to speak during the Republican National Midterm Convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on September 9, 2026.
A new poll released with less than two months until Election Day finds Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico holding a narrow 46%–43% lead over Republican and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — a margin inside the survey's ±4 percentage-point error and effectively a statistical tie in one of the most closely watched contests this cycle.
What The Polls Show
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey of 625 registered Texas voters showed Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%, with about 8% undecided and 3% backing Libertarian Ted Brown. The poll also revealed sharp demographic splits: Talarico led women 52% to 36% while Paxton led men 51% to 39%.
Other recent surveys paint a similarly tight picture. A SoCal Strategies poll of 649 likely voters (Sept. 12–13) put Talarico ahead 50% to 45%, reversing an earlier June result that favored Paxton. A YouGov/Univision poll (1,000 registered voters, Aug. 27–Sept. 4) found Talarico up 48% to 43% (±3.6). An Overton Insights/TPPF poll of 1,167 likely voters (Aug. 24–26) showed the race essentially tied once leaners were included.
Democratic candidate for US Senate James Talarico speaks during a rally in Houston, Texas, on September 13, 2026. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP via Getty Images)
Prediction Markets And Stakes
Prediction markets have recently favored Talarico: Kalshi placed his chance of winning at about 54% while Polymarket showed roughly 56%. For Democrats, flipping a Texas Senate seat would be a major gain: Republicans currently hold a 53–47 Senate majority, and Texas has been a reliably red state in recent decades.
Candidates And The Campaign Dynamic
Paxton, endorsed by Donald Trump and the winner of a May primary upset over longtime Sen. John Cornyn, brings statewide name recognition but also a long history of legal controversies. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on 20 articles and later acquitted by the Texas Senate. Allegations from a 2020 complaint by former aides led to a 2025 Travis County judge ruling that certain staff were improperly fired and awarding $6.6 million; Paxton initially appealed but dropped the appeal after launching his Senate campaign. He also faced a 2015 indictment on felony securities fraud charges.
Talarico, a state representative since 2018, has surged in recent surveys and become a favorite of some forecasters and markets. Republicans have seized on his past comments about faith — including a 2021 remark in the Texas legislature that "God is nonbinary" — to portray him as too progressive, while Talarico insists his comment reflects a theological view that God transcends gender. The Democrat emphasizes his Christian faith and has been an outspoken advocate for LGBTQ+ rights.
Where The Race Is Headed
With fewer than 50 days until Nov. 3, both campaigns are increasing outreach and spending to win undecided and independent voters. Texans must register to vote by Oct. 5; early voting runs Oct. 19–30. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up, underscoring how close and consequential the contest has become.
Bottom line: Multiple polling firms and prediction markets show a highly competitive race. Small shifts in turnout or undecided voters could determine the outcome in a state that Democrats have not won for statewide office in decades.
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