Experts: Potential U.S. Strikes On Iran Could Expose Limits Of Russian And Chinese Influence

President Donald Trump is weighing possible military strikes against Iran — a decision that analysts say could further highlight the limits of Moscow’s and Beijing’s ability to shield partners and underscore the United States’ capacity to project force globally.

What Analysts Are Saying

Although Russia and China have expanded economic and military ties across regions such as Africa and Latin America, neither intervened when the United States acted on Jan. 3 to remove Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, analysts note. That episode, they argue, showed the practical limits of those partnerships when Washington chooses to act.

Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said: "Beijing would likely respond with familiar condemnations and calls for restraint, but the deeper takeaway would be uncomfortable: China’s partnerships offer little protection when the United States decides to act. Venezuela made that clear regionally; Iran would underscore it globally."

Singleton added that two complex military operations in different regions within a short period would reinforce a core assessment inside China’s security community: the U.S. military remains unmatched in global reach and willingness to act when risks are judged manageable.

Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Jan. 9, 2026.

Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, made a similar point, noting that countries aligned with Russia and China are beginning to see the limitations of those ties. "The United States maintains bases and naval reach across the globe," he said. "China and Russia do not yet have that same global presence to protect allies and partners."

Official Responses From Moscow And Beijing

Russia’s Foreign Ministry called warnings of potential U.S. strikes against Iran "categorically unacceptable," describing them as "subversive external interference." China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning similarly criticized foreign interference and urged restraint.

Context: Protests In Iran And Recent U.S. Actions

Large-scale protests swept Iran in December 2025 amid economic hardship and opposition to theocratic rule. Casualty figures vary widely: the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported more than 2,000 deaths, including children, while a regional doctors' report cited by The Sunday Times estimated a far higher toll.

The Trump administration has publicly signaled it is reviewing "very strong options." In recent months, the U.S. authorized operations targeting militant groups in several countries and carried out strikes previously — including reported strikes on Iranian nuclear sites earlier in the year. Administration officials say military action would be weighed against political and humanitarian consequences.

President Donald Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth listen as Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Oct. 9, 2025.

Strategic Implications

Analysts say a U.S. strike on Iran, particularly if conducted soon after the Venezuela operation, would send a powerful signal about the United States’ ability to act across multiple theaters. That could alter perceptions among allied and partner states about how much protection relationships with Moscow or Beijing actually provide in a crisis.

At the same time, experts warn that military action carries significant risks — from regional escalation to political fallout — and that public condemnations from Russia and China are likely even if practical support for Iran remains limited.

Bottom Line

Potential strikes on Iran would test how far strategic partnerships with Russia and China deter U.S. action in practice. Analysts suggest such operations would underline U.S. global reach while spotlighting the differences in basing, naval presence, and expeditionary capability that distinguish American power from that of near-peer competitors.

Sources: Statements and analysis by Craig Singleton, Mark Cancian; official Russian and Chinese foreign ministry statements; Human Rights Activists News Agency; The Sunday Times; reporting on recent U.S. military operations.