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Modi’s Coalition Poised for Decisive Victory in Bihar, Strengthening His National Position

Partial results from the Election Commission show the BJP-led NDA is on track to win 208 of 243 seats in Bihar, while the BJP itself is projected to take 95 seats—short of the 122 needed for a majority. A strong alliance victory would reinforce the federal government and provide political momentum to Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the 2029 national election and several high-stakes state contests. The outcome also underscores Bihar’s role as a political bellwether for India’s Hindi-speaking heartland.

Modi’s Coalition Poised for Decisive Victory in Bihar, Strengthening His National Position

Modi’s Coalition Poised for Decisive Victory in Bihar

Partial results released by the Election Commission of India indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on track to win 208 of the 243 seats in Bihar’s legislative assembly, a result that would mark a significant political triumph for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his allies.

Key figures: the assembly has 243 seats, the simple majority threshold is 122, and the BJP alone is projected to win 95 seats.

Bihar, India’s third-most populous state with nearly 130 million residents, sends the fourth-largest delegation to the Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament). Control of the state has outsized national importance because Bihar is widely seen as a bellwether for political trends across India’s Hindi-speaking heartland.

This year’s two-phase election unfolded amid widespread public concerns over unemployment, public safety, and allegations of irregularities in the revision of electoral rolls. Campaigns were hard-fought and highly visible, featuring mass rallies, targeted welfare messaging, and direct voter outreach from Modi and his principal opponents.

As early counts favored the NDA, jubilant celebrations erupted in Patna, with supporters waving party flags, dancing to drums, and setting off fireworks.

The outcome in Bihar is important beyond the state. A strong showing would bolster the federal government, which has been governing without an absolute parliamentary majority since last year’s national election and therefore relies on regional partners. At the national level, the BJP governs in coalition with Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas), both of which are also key partners in Bihar.

“It will give a great comfort to Modi to get Bihar under his belt. It will provide more stability to the government at the center,” said political analyst Neerja Chowdhury.

The BJP leads the Bihar ruling alliance, while Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United), 74, has been a dominant figure in state politics for nearly two decades and is credited by many with improving infrastructure and restoring law-and-order. Kumar was once an opponent of Modi but later rejoined the NDA alliance.

Analysts had warned that a defeat in Bihar could have splintered Kumar’s party and threatened the stability of Modi’s federal coalition, which depends on the support of regional lawmakers. Conversely, a decisive win would strengthen Modi’s momentum ahead of the 2029 national election and important state contests expected in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam over the coming years.