The November election left no decisive majority, forcing protracted coalition negotiations. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s list won the most seats but lacks a majority and faces resistance from the Coordination Framework. More than 100 seats went to parties with armed wings, complicating efforts to curb militia power amid heavy public debt and oil-dependent revenues. The United States has urged Baghdad to prevent militia leaders from holding key security positions, while some groups, such as Kataib Hezbollah, reject disarmament.
Iraq's Government in Limbo: Coalition Battles, Militia Influence and Economic Strain
Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani speaks during an event to mark the end of the U.N. political mission in Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, Dec. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Political factions across Iraq are locked in extended negotiations after the November parliamentary election failed to deliver a clear majority. The outcome has left the next government’s shape uncertain and raised pressing questions about militia influence, economic stability and foreign pressure.
Election Results and Balance of Power
Shiite alliances and lists—largely those aligned with the Coordination Framework—won 187 seats, Sunni groups captured 77 seats, Kurdish parties took 56, and nine seats are reserved for minority representatives. The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, secured 46 seats and led the vote in Baghdad and several provinces but lacks a governing majority.
Al-Sudani's Prospects
Al-Sudani campaigned as a pragmatic technocrat focused on improving services and keeping Iraq out of regional conflicts. Although his list emerged with the most seats, he must build a wider alliance to stay in power. Observers say the Coordination Framework—which emerged as the largest bloc—may not support his reappointment, viewing a strong prime minister as a political rival rather than an ally.
FILE - Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban, File)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The choice for prime minister must be someone the Framework believes they can control and who does not pursue independent political ambitions, according to analyst Sajad Jiyad.
Militias, The Popular Mobilization Forces and Domestic Security
More than 100 parliamentary seats went to parties with armed wings—the largest representation of militia-affiliated lawmakers since 2003. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), formed to fight ISIS and formally placed under the Iraqi military in 2016, continue to exercise significant autonomy in practice. After the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack in Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, some PMF-aligned groups carried out attacks on U.S. bases in the region.
U.S. officials reportedly warned against appointing a prime minister who controls an armed faction and cautioned about militia-linked figures taking major security portfolios. Groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, have openly rejected disarmament and insisted on retaining weapons as leverage.
Political Fragmentation: Sadrists, Sunnis and Kurds
The Sadrist movement’s absence—owing to a boycott—left a vacuum in areas where it traditionally performed strongly, benefiting rival groups within the Coordination Framework. Sunni parties are attempting to regroup under a new National Political Council to recover influence lost in recent cycles. Kurdish politics remains shaped by the longstanding divide between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which are negotiating the customary Kurdish claim to the presidency.
FILE - Election workers gather parliamentary election ballots after the polls closed in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban, File)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Economic Pressures
The incoming government will inherit heavy fiscal challenges: public debt exceeding 90 trillion Iraqi dinars (roughly $69 billion) and a state budget still reliant on oil for about 90% of revenues. Tackling endemic corruption and pursuing meaningful economic diversification will be urgent but politically difficult tasks.
Timeline And Legal Process
Following the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the election results on Dec. 14, parliament must elect a speaker within 15 days. The president—a position reserved by convention for a Kurd—should be elected within 30 days of the first session. The president then has 15 days to appoint a prime minister, who will have 30 days to form a cabinet.
Outlook
Forming a stable government will require compromise among competing Shiite blocs, Sunni and Kurdish parties, and an approach to militia integration that balances security needs, domestic politics and international pressure—especially from Iran and the United States. The next government’s success will hinge on its ability to limit militia autonomy politically, stabilize public finances and manage external pressures without escalating domestic divisions.
