The Presidency That Might Have Been: How Trump Could Have Been a Popular, Moderate Republican

Matt Lewis, opinion contributor|The Hill

1h ago•3 min read

The Presidency That Might Have Been: How Trump Could Have Been a Popular, Moderate Republican

President Trump could have pursued a simple, popular governing formula: secure the border, improve affordability without hurting growth, and offer reassuring but entertaining leadership. Early border actions were undermined by tariffs and persistent spectacle, while personal impulses and narrow policy priorities limited broader appeal. Similar "unforced errors" by Biden, Obama and Bush show how leaders often squander opportunities to build enduring coalitions. The result is a political cycle that weakens public trust and makes lasting governance more difficult.

As American politics drifts deeper into a theater of the absurd and President Trump’s approval ratings slide, it’s worth considering a simple counterfactual: it didn’t have to be this way.

The essential, winning formula was straightforward: secure the border, address affordability without derailing growth, and offer the modern equivalent of “bread and circuses” — stability with engaging political theater that doesn’t ruin people’s retirement savings.

Early Wins—and Self-Inflicted Setbacks

To his credit, Mr. Trump acted quickly on immigration and took visible steps to tighten the border. But those early gains were undercut when he doubled down on tariffs, a policy that can raise consumer costs and work against the goal of improving affordability.

Americans enjoy spectacle, but successful leadership balances entertainment with competence. Instead of limiting himself to reassuring diversions, Mr. Trump transformed the national conversation into a persistent, risky spectacle: more rings, more dangerous clowns, and fewer safeguards.

Unforced Errors Across Administrations

There’s a recurring pattern in modern presidencies: leaders mistaking electoral victory for an open mandate to remake politics overnight. Joe Biden’s early reversal of Trump-era border rules and the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal are recent examples of unforced errors that harmed public confidence. When inflation rose, partly from pandemic spending, the administration’s delayed response deepened voter frustration.

Going further back, Barack Obama made a conscious choice to prioritize health-care reform while riding high in popularity, spending political capital that might have been conserved for other goals. George W. Bush—who ran as a unifier with a restrained foreign-policy stance—saw those plans upended by extraordinary events and later pursued Social Security reform in a way that conflated reelection with a broad mandate.

What a Different Trump Might Have Looked Like

Imagine a scenario in which a strategic adviser channeled Mr. Trump’s outsider energy, business credentials, comic instincts, and charisma into a steadier governing rhythm — an occasional flip of a switch labeled “Measured, Rational Governance Mode.” With disciplined trade policy, a clearer affordability agenda, and less performative rancor, his administration could have broadened its appeal and become more enduring.

Instead, personal traits—narcissism, impulsivity, and a penchant for retribution—combined with a narrow set of policy commitments (tariffs, muscular law enforcement, strict immigration enforcement) have constrained his ability to build a wider coalition.

Why This Matters

American politics increasingly feels like Groundhog Day: rather than forecasting the weather, the cycle predicts the collapse of another promising administration. These repeated missteps are not just political setbacks; they erode public trust in democratic institutions and make it harder for any leader to convert fleeting popularity into a durable governing majority.