Bernard Goldberg warns that President Trump’s focus on his hard‑core MAGA base could cost Republicans in the midterms and expose him to a third impeachment if Democrats retake the House. House Democrats are already threatening impeachment proceedings against Kristi Noem over Department of Homeland Security actions. Growing public unease over immigration enforcement and a Fox News poll showing 68% of Americans — including 48% of Republicans — want Trump to spend more time on the economy heighten the political risk. If unrest and negative headlines persist, the GOP could face serious midterm losses.
Trump’s Narrow MAGA Focus Risks Midterm Losses — And Could Invite A Third Impeachment
President Donald Trump now carries an unusual distinction — one he might perversely admire: he is the only U.S. president to have been impeached twice, even though the Senate did not convict him. If Democrats reclaim the House in November, a third impeachment is a realistic political outcome.
House Democrats are already signaling possible action — and they are starting with a high-profile target. Lawmakers have publicly demanded the removal of Kristi Noem from a Department of Homeland Security role, arguing her office’s tactics have harmed public safety and civil liberties.
“The violence unleashed on the American people by the Department of Homeland Security must end forthwith. Kristi Noem should be fired immediately, or we will commence impeachment proceedings,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), joined by Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.).
Their message was blunt: "We can do this the easy way or the hard way." That warning signals the broader political stakes — progressives may press for further actions that could directly threaten the president if Democrats control the House.
Mr. Trump has himself acknowledged that the midterms are decisive: "You got to win the midterms," he warned Republicans, "because if we don't, they'll find a reason to impeach me." That admission raises a crucial question for his advisers: is anyone telling him that governing solely for the hard-core MAGA base risks alienating swing voters?
William Galston wrote in the Wall Street Journal that "During the first year of his second term, President Trump has governed as if he needs to please only one subset of those who voted for him in 2024 — his hard-core MAGA base. This is a mistake." Part of that mistake, observers say, is failing to recognize shifting public sentiment on immigration enforcement.
According to multiple recent surveys cited by commentators, public opinion has soured on aggressive immigration enforcement and some ICE tactics. Even influential voices outside traditional partisan media have criticized enforcement methods — for example, podcaster Joe Rogan has likened ICE tactics to "the Gestapo," a comparison that underscores how controversial these tactics have become.
Some Republicans may try a course correction to broaden appeal. Others could pursue distractions — including possible military action abroad — to shift headlines away from domestic unrest. One speculative wedge is a harder line toward Iran if talks with Tehran collapse, though such a move would carry major risks.
Ultimately, pocketbook issues often determine voters’ choices. A recent Fox News poll found that 68% of Americans think Mr. Trump is not spending enough time on the economy; notably, 48% of Republicans share that view. Persisting unrest and negative headlines will make it harder for the White House to persuade voters it is improving economic conditions.
If Democrats win the House and move to impeach again, the Senate is likely to acquit, but the political damage could be severe — both for Mr. Trump personally and for congressional Republicans viewed as his enablers. A strong voter backlash in the midterms could reshape control of Congress.
Bottom line: The president’s current focus on the MAGA base may energize core supporters but risks alienating the broader electorate. That dynamic raises the stakes for a midterm electorate attuned to both economic concerns and the tone of national politics.
About the author: Bernard Goldberg is an Emmy and duPont‑Columbia award‑winning writer and journalist. He publishes weekly columns and commentary on Substack. Follow him @BernardGoldberg.
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