Americans Want Stronger U.S. Global Leadership — But Many Doubt the Military Could Win Major Overseas Wars

A new national defense poll shows a clear paradox in public opinion: a sizable majority of Americans want the United States to take a stronger leadership role internationally, yet many question whether the U.S. military could successfully win large-scale wars overseas or effectively deter foreign aggression.

The 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey finds 64% of Americans favor more U.S. engagement and leadership on world issues, a majority that crosses party lines. At the same time, only 49% believe the U.S. military could win a war overseas, and just 45% say it can effectively deter aggression.

"The American people really do support an engaged American presence on the international stage," said Rachel Hoff, policy director at the Reagan Institute and a co-author of the survey. She added that many still view the U.S. as having the "most powerful military in the world," and that American strength contributes to global stability.

Declining Confidence and Concerns About Politicization

One striking long-term trend is the erosion of public confidence in the armed forces: only 49% of respondents now report having "a great deal" of confidence in the military, a decline of 21 percentage points since 2018. Hoff told pollsters the decline is broad-based, touching respondents across political affiliations, genders and age groups.

When asked why trust has fallen, many respondents pointed to the increasing politicization of the military. "The American people really want to keep politics out of the military and keep the military focused on its core warfighting mission," Hoff said.

Support for Ukraine and Taiwan Rises

Public support for aiding Ukraine has grown: 64% of Americans back sending U.S. weapons to Kyiv, up nine points from last year. About two-thirds say they want Ukraine to win the war, while 45% favor continuing support until Ukraine regains all Russian-occupied territory. Hoff noted a notable increase in support among Republican voters as well.

Backing for defending Taiwan has also jumped sharply. 60% of respondents say they would support committing U.S. forces to Taiwan's defense if China invaded, up from 48% last year. Nearly every potential U.S. response tested in the survey — sanctions, repositioning military assets, sending equipment and even establishing a no-fly zone — rose by roughly ten points.

China Tops the List of Threats

Respondents ranked China as the top perceived threat to U.S. security, well ahead of Russia, Iran and North Korea. Concerns about Beijing’s military buildup, cyber capabilities and global influence appear to be driving the surge in support for stronger responses to potential aggression.

What the Public Expects

The survey arrives as defense planners reassess strategy and resources needed to counter China and Russia. Its core message, Hoff said, is straightforward: Americans want U.S. leadership paired with credible military strength that is well-resourced and free from partisan influence.

"The American people see the threats around the world. They understand who our friends and adversaries are. They want the U.S. to lead globally and to stand up in defense of freedom," Hoff said. "They want an American military that's resourced and postured to do so."

Defense leaders, the survey suggests, can be reassured that the public favors a robust U.S. presence worldwide — but they must also address doubts about readiness, restore deterrence and work to keep the military focused on its core missions.