New Gallup polling shows most Americans expect crime, prices, taxes and unemployment to rise in 2026, and a majority foresee economic difficulty. Fifty-five percent expect the stock market to rise despite broader pessimism. Majorities also say U.S. global influence will decline while China’s increases. Rising pessimism among conservatives drove much of the negative shift from 2025, a development with clear implications for the White House heading into an election year.
Most Americans Expect a Tough 2026, New Gallup Poll Finds
A chart showing the changes in partisans’ positive predictions for 2026 vs 2025 by issue.
A new Gallup poll finds most U.S. adults are bracing for a challenging 2026, with widespread expectations that crime, prices, taxes and unemployment will rise.
Economic outlook: A majority of respondents say 2026 will be marked by economic difficulty, although one notable exception is that 55% expect the stock market to rise — a metric often emphasized by former President Donald Trump and his supporters.
Global power perceptions: Majorities also believe the United States will see its global influence decline while China’s influence grows, reflecting broader concerns about America’s international standing.
Partisan differences: Republicans are generally more optimistic than independents and Democrats across the issues polled. However, the overall negative shift in expectations from 2025 to 2026 was largely driven by growing pessimism among conservatives — a trend that could have political implications in an election year.
Implications: The combination of broad economic pessimism and rising conservative doubt presents both risks and potential upside for the White House and for political actors: it signals voter unease but also suggests a relatively low bar for perceived improvement in the months ahead.
Bottom line: Most Americans expect tougher conditions in 2026, though a majority still foresee gains for the stock market — and growing conservative pessimism is an important dynamic to watch ahead of the midterms.
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