The Pentagon’s annual report warns China’s military expansion is now capable of directly threatening U.S. security, calling the buildup "historic." It forecasts six additional aircraft carriers by 2035 and projects China’s nuclear stockpile could exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. The report also flags advances in early-warning and counterstrike systems, a deeper but wary China–Russia partnership, and ongoing diplomatic outreach between Washington and Beijing.
Pentagon: China’s Military Buildup Increasingly Puts U.S. Security at Risk
China's Shandong aircraft carrier pictured at a naval port in southern China's Hainan Province. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP)
The Department of Defense’s latest annual assessment warns that China’s rapidly expanding military is now capable of directly threatening the security of Americans. The report calls Beijing’s recent modernization and expansion efforts “historic” and highlights significant growth across naval and nuclear forces, as well as advances in early-warning and counterstrike capabilities.
Naval Expansion: The report projects China will add six aircraft carriers by 2035, bringing its carrier fleet to nine — narrowly behind the United States’ 11. This expansion is part of a broader push to project power farther from China’s shores and to operate more effectively in contested maritime regions.
Nuclear Forces: China’s nuclear warhead stockpile remained in the low 600s at the end of 2024, reflecting a slower production pace than in prior years. Still, the Pentagon assesses Beijing is on track to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. The report also highlights improvements in early-warning and counterstrike systems that could enable retaliatory actions before an incoming warhead detonates.
Budget and Transparency: China’s announced defense budget rose by an inflation-adjusted 5.2% between 2023 and 2024. The Pentagon cautions, however, that there is broad consensus that Beijing’s published figures do not capture the full scope of its defense spending.
Strategic Relationships and Doctrine: The assessment notes a deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia, driven largely by a shared interest in countering U.S. influence. Nonetheless, that partnership is constrained by persistent mutual distrust. President Xi Jinping has framed military modernization as part of a long-term “Chinese dream” to build a world-class military by 2049 and has instructed the armed forces to be prepared to take Taiwan by 2027. Chinese leaders have also studied Russia’s experience in Ukraine, drawing lessons on operational concepts, force modernization, and avoiding protracted conflict.
Diplomatic Context: The stark security assessment arrives amid signs of renewed diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing. President Donald Trump said he accepted an invitation from Xi to visit China in April, and he extended an invitation for a state visit by the Chinese leader next year. The simultaneous mix of heightened military competition and revived diplomacy underscores a complex and consequential U.S.-China relationship.
Bottom Line: The Pentagon portrays China’s military rise as both rapid and consequential — prompting concerns about direct threats to U.S. security even as diplomats seek channels for dialogue.
