‘Unprecedented’ Heat Strikes South Asian Guava Farms — Blossoms Drop and Prices Rise

Staple fruit crops across the globe are being disrupted by shifting weather patterns, rising temperatures and more extreme climate events. Guava growers in South Asia have reported sharp impacts since 2023, with heat and delayed monsoons disrupting long-established flowering cycles.

For more than two centuries, Bangladesh’s Barisal Division has been known for producing a wide range of guava varieties. Farmers there say unusually high temperatures in April and May have forced many blossoms to fall early, reducing both yields and fruit quality.

"The weather change is unprecedented. The blossoms die due to late arrival of the monsoon," said guava farmer Haralal Halder, who estimates about one-third of his crop’s blossoms were lost to heat stress.

Bangladesh, India and Pakistan together account for nearly half of global guava production, according to market data from Tridge. Since 2019 these countries have experienced erratic rainfall and hotter conditions in key growing months. In Barisal, many orchards rely on live canal irrigation, which limits their ability to respond quickly when flowering and early fruit are stressed by heat or drought.

Beyond Lower Yields: Quality and Ripening Problems

Climatic shifts are causing more than reduced harvest volumes. Growers report slower or uneven ripening, changes in fruit texture and flavor, and altered chemical composition — all of which reduce market value and consumer satisfaction. These quality problems can be harder to manage than sheer yield losses, because they affect prices and long-term demand.

The economic ripple effects are real. When heat and low rainfall reduce supply, consumer prices rise — a dynamic sometimes described as "heatflation." The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that food prices rose roughly 25% from 2019 to 2023, and global food costs are projected to continue rising through 2035. Rising temperatures are also impacting other fruits such as melons, bananas and avocados.

How Farmers Are Adapting

Local agricultural advisors and growers are exploring several adaptation strategies. G.M.M. Kabir Khan, a horticulture specialist at the Barisal Department of Agricultural Extension, says some farmers are shifting from guava to more heat- and drought-tolerant crops like hog plum and banana. Others are trialing climate-resilient guava varieties, modifying planting and flowering schedules, and testing protective production methods such as shaded tunnels or greenhouse cultivation.

While these measures can reduce risk, they require investment, technical support and time to scale. Many smallholder farmers face financial and logistical barriers to rapid change.

What This Means for Consumers and Policy

Disruptions in regional guava production underscore a broader challenge: fruit and vegetable supply chains are increasingly sensitive to climate variation. To protect farmers’ livelihoods and stabilize prices, policymakers and supply-chain actors need to support irrigation improvements, varietal research, accessible credit and training in climate-smart practices.

In the meantime, consumers may see seasonal price swings and changes in availability or quality of guava and other heat-sensitive fruits. Strengthening resilience at farm and community levels will be essential to reduce those impacts over the coming years.