Simulations of global floods from 1980 to 2015 show a rise in "rice‑killing" floods that submerge plants for seven days or more, reducing yields worldwide. A Science Advances study estimates these extreme floods cut rice production by about 4.3% annually — roughly 18 million tonnes lost each year. With over 4 billion people dependent on rice, such losses pose a serious food‑security risk and highlight the need for flood‑tolerant varieties, adaptive farming and stronger policy support.
Rising Floods Are Cutting Global Rice Yields — About 18 Million Tonnes Lost Annually, Study Warns
Severe flooding is increasingly reducing rice harvests worldwide, posing a growing threat to farmers' incomes and household food bills. New research that simulated global flood events from 1980 to 2015 found a rising frequency of so-called "rice‑killing" floods — extreme inundations that fully submerge rice plants for at least seven days. While rice is adapted to wet conditions, it cannot survive prolonged submersion.
Major Yield Losses and Food Security Risks
The study, published in Science Advances, estimates that extreme flooding reduces rice yields by an average of 4.3% per year, equivalent to roughly 18 million tonnes of rice lost annually. Such losses are significant: more than 4 billion people rely on rice as a core part of their diet, and in some countries rice supplies up to 70% of daily calories.
"That's a huge impact," lead researcher Zhi Li told ABC News, underscoring the potential consequences for vulnerable communities.
Climate Links and Broader Crop Threats
Researchers link the increasing frequency of extreme floods to a warming climate. The World Meteorological Organization reported that last year recorded the highest global average temperature on record, at 2.79°F above pre‑industrial levels, and many scientists warn that further warming is likely. As the planet warms, weather patterns become more erratic, increasing the intensity and unpredictability of floods, droughts and storms.
Rice is not the only crop at risk: prolonged droughts, stronger storms and emerging plant diseases are already damaging vegetables, wheat, olive oil and other staples. These disruptions can trigger cascading social and economic effects — reducing farmers' incomes, harming local businesses, increasing unemployment and pushing up food prices.
Responses And What’s Needed
Researchers, governments and agricultural organizations are pursuing several responses: breeding flood‑tolerant rice varieties, developing pest‑resistant and climate‑adapted crops, and promoting farming practices that improve resilience to extreme weather. Farmers are also adopting adaptive techniques such as improved water management, adjusted planting schedules and diversified cropping systems.
Experts emphasize that scientific innovation must be paired with policy support and public awareness. Greater understanding of how consumption, land use and climate choices affect global food systems can help communities take more sustainable, resilient actions. Collective efforts at the individual, community and policy levels will be essential to protect crops and the people who depend on them as the climate continues to change.
