Redfin reports that sellers outnumbered buyers by a record 47% in December — about 631,000 more sellers — driven by a sharp drop in active buyers to roughly 1.34 million. Although mortgage rates eased to a three-year low (around 6.06% for a 30-year fixed), rates remain high compared with 2021, and elevated costs plus economic uncertainty have reduced demand. Sun Belt metros show the largest seller surpluses, while some Northeast and Midwest areas still favor buyers. Redfin calls 2026 “The Great Housing Reset,” expecting a long, slow recovery as the lock-in effect eases.
Sellers Outnumber Buyers By Record 47% In December, Redfin Says — “The Great Housing Reset” Begins
Home sellers outnumber buyers by widest margin on record, Redfin says
Buyers who once faced bidding wars now have the upper hand as a nationwide surplus of home sellers reshapes the U.S. housing market.
Key Findings
Redfin’s December estimates show sellers outnumbered buyers by 47% — roughly 631,000 more sellers — the largest gap on record in data stretching back to 2013. Active buyers fell to about 1.34 million, the lowest level in Redfin’s 12 years of tracking.
Mortgage borrowing costs have eased from recent peaks to their lowest level in more than three years, but remain elevated by historical norms: the average 30-year fixed mortgage was about 6.06%, roughly double typical 2021 rates. Redfin says high prices, elevated mortgage rates, layoffs and broader economic and political uncertainty have pushed many buyers to the sidelines.
Regional Differences
The imbalance is most pronounced across many Sun Belt metros, where pandemic-era population booms and heavy new construction increased supply while demand cooled. Austin led the top-50 metropolitan areas with an estimated 128.4% more sellers than buyers in December. Other large imbalances included Fort Lauderdale (125.1%), Nashville (111.3%), Miami (102.7%) and San Antonio (102.5%).
By contrast, some counties and smaller metros in the Northeast and Midwest still favored buyers in December — for example, Nassau County (NY), Montgomery County (PA) and Newark (NJ) each had more buyers than sellers that month.
Market Classification
Overall, Redfin classified 36 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas as buyer’s markets in December (defined as having at least 10% more sellers than buyers). Only five metros qualified as sellers’ markets. The broad gap contributed to weak existing-home sales in 2025, which hovered near a 30-year low.
Seller Behavior And Inventory Outlook
Many homeowners who bought near the market peak have been slow to lower price expectations. "A lot of sellers are in denial and won’t budge on price," said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in the Dallas area. "If you don’t price your home reasonably, it will sit on the market."
One potentially positive development for future inventory is an easing of the "lock-in effect": fewer homeowners now hold ultra-low sub-3% mortgage rates, which may make more owners willing to move over time.
What Redfin Says About 2026
Redfin has dubbed 2026 "The Great Housing Reset," calling it the start of a long, slow recovery. The firm derives its active-buyer estimates from proprietary data on the typical time between a buyer’s first home tour and closing, combined with MLS data on active listings and pending sales.
Top 10 Buyer’s Markets (Dec. 2025, Top 50 Metros)
- Austin, TX — 128.4%
- Fort Lauderdale, FL — 125.1%
- Nashville, TN — 111.3%
- Miami, FL — 102.7%
- San Antonio, TX — 102.5%
- West Palm Beach, FL — 97.4%
- Houston, TX — 96.6%
- Las Vegas, NV — 88.9%
- Dallas, TX — 86.8%
- Tampa, FL — 82.2%
Methodology: Redfin’s active-buyer estimates combine proprietary data on buyer search and touring behavior with MLS data on active listings and pending sales.
Help us improve.
