President Trump recently linked rising housing costs to large inflows of migrants, calling illegal border crossings a major factor. While immigration—both legal and undocumented—adds to housing demand, the core problem is that housing supply has not kept pace: roughly 5.5 million estimated undocumented arrivals under the Biden administration versus about 1.3 million housing permits annually. Prices and rents have climbed sharply in the U.S. and Europe, straining local services and fueling debates about how to balance humanitarian goals with housing and infrastructure capacity.
How Both Legal and Illegal Immigration Are Amplifying America's Housing Shortage
Last month President Trump addressed the nation from the Diplomatic Reception Room, the fireplace trimmed with Christmas garlands, and focused his remarks on the economy. He argued that immigration—what he called a “colossal border invasion”—has been a major driver of rising housing costs, asserting that large inflows of migrants have pushed prices higher.
There is a kernel of truth in that argument, but the housing squeeze reflects a broader imbalance: population growth (from both legal and undocumented immigration) has outpaced new housing construction. Observers across the political spectrum agree that the supply of affordable, middle‑class housing is insufficient to meet current demand.
Numbers That Explain the Gap
Estimates suggest roughly 5.5 million undocumented migrants arrived during the Biden administration. At the same time, new housing permits have averaged about 1.3 million units annually, with single‑family permits near 856,000 per year. Whether arrivals are lawful or not, newcomers need places to live; even with multiple households sharing units, construction has not kept pace with net population growth.
The effect shows up in prices. The median single‑family home price in the U.S. rose from about $236,000 in 2015 to roughly $329,000 in 2020 and now exceeds $430,000 nationally—nearly a doubling in a decade.
International Comparisons
These pressures are not unique to the United States. Matthew Goodwin, writing in The Spectator, argues that mass migration has put intense pressure on Britain’s housing market: nearly half of London’s social housing is occupied by foreign‑born residents, and in 2022 only about 204,000 housing units were completed while net immigration was reported at 745,000. Across Europe, home prices have risen roughly 60% since 2015 and rents 20–30%, contributing to overcrowding and higher living costs in major cities.
Legal Immigration and Local Strains
U.S. policy also admits substantial legal migration: the country grants nearly 1.2 million people permanent‑resident status annually, not counting millions on temporary visas (H‑1B workers, international students, temporary protected status, etc.). These residents also add to housing demand, school enrollment, and the need for local services.
When relatively small towns and mid‑sized cities absorb large numbers of newcomers in short periods, local systems can be strained. Springfield, Ohio—a town of under 60,000—has been reported to receive as many as 20,000 immigrants over several years, overwhelming some social services and school systems and altering community dynamics. Whether specific sensational allegations circulating online are true is secondary to the broader point: sudden, concentrated inflows can stress local infrastructure.
Welfare Use and Fraud: Reports and Context
Recent investigations have also highlighted problems in specific places. Minnesota prosecutors uncovered large‑scale Medicaid fraud involving billions of dollars; reporting indicates that some of the fraud involved individuals from immigrant communities. Separately, research from the Center for Immigration Studies (a think tank with a particular policy perspective) estimates high rates of public‑assistance receipt among some Somali immigrant households in Minnesota compared with native‑born households. These findings have fueled debate about how immigration policy, benefit eligibility, and enforcement intersect—though methodologies and conclusions vary by source and are subject to scrutiny.
Policy Trade‑Offs and Next Steps
The debate frames a larger policy question: how to balance humanitarian obligations and labor needs with the practical realities of housing supply and community capacity. Many experts argue the solution should focus less on limiting people and more on increasing housing production, improving infrastructure planning, coordinating federal and local policy, and aligning immigration levels with available resources and strategic workforce needs.
Immigration—legal and undocumented—contributes to housing demand, but it is one part of a larger problem that includes zoning constraints, labor shortages in construction, rising material costs, and financing challenges. Addressing the housing crisis will require both careful immigration policy and a renewed, sustained commitment to boosting affordable housing supply.
Brandon Goldman is managing editor for Upward News and a contributor to The Spectator (U.S. edition).
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