South Korea Sees 15th Straight Month of Rising Births, but Fertility Remains Very Low

South Korea recorded its 15th consecutive month of rising births, a short-term rebound that provides some relief from its long-running demographic challenges, the national statistics agency reported.

September and year-to-date highlights

22,369 babies were born in September, an 8.6% year-on-year increase and the highest September total since 2020. Births have trended upward since July 2024. The total fertility rate for September was 0.85, up 0.06 from a year earlier.

Across the first three quarters of the year, 191,040 infants were born — 12,488 more than in the same period last year — marking the largest nine-month year-on-year gain since 2007. With the continued rise in births and marriages, the total number of newborns this year is on track to surpass last year’s tally of 238,317.

Marriage trends and drivers

Marriages in September jumped 20.1% year-on-year to 18,462, the 18th consecutive month of growth and the highest September total on record. Officials and demographers point to several contributing factors: a wave of postponed marriages following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, government incentives for families, and a larger cohort of people in their early 30s — a key childbearing age group.

Long-term outlook and risks

Despite the recent uptick, South Korea’s overall fertility remains extremely low. The country’s 2024 total fertility rate was 0.75, meaning that, on average, a woman would be expected to have 0.75 children in her lifetime — far below the approximately 2.1 births per woman generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population.

“When gender-unequal norms and a large gender wage gap meet long hours and inflexible working practices, many Korean mothers are constrained to choose family over career,” the OECD observed in a March report.

The same OECD report warned that South Korea’s population could shrink dramatically over coming decades, projecting that the population might halve within about six decades and that people aged 65 or older could account for roughly 58% of the population by 2082.

Policy response

To counter demographic decline, the government has rolled out policies including financial incentives for new parents, expanded parental leave and increased childcare support. The issue also featured at this month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in Gyeongju, where representatives adopted the meeting’s first-ever framework on demographic change.

Experts say the recent gains are encouraging but caution that sustainable recovery in birth rates will require deeper changes to housing affordability, job security, workplace practices and gender equality to remove the structural barriers that discourage marriage and parenthood.