ICE Arrests Shrink U.S. Child-Care Workforce and Push Mothers Out of Jobs

A surge in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests since President Trump took office has strained the nation’s child-care system, shrinking the pool of immigrant caregivers and forcing many mothers of young children to leave paid work as they scramble for reliable care, according to a new report from the Better Life Lab at New America.

Key Findings

The study combines federal labor statistics with newly compiled ICE arrest data (September 2023–July 2025) and finds that rising enforcement is linked to large declines in the formal child-care workforce and knock-on effects for parents. Among the report’s headline findings:

• About 39,000 fewer foreign-born child-care workers since January 2025.
• An estimated 77,000 fewer U.S. mothers of preschool-aged children participating in the labor force over the same period.
• ICE arrests rose more than threefold between December 2024 and June 2025, from roughly 8,300 to over 29,000.

How Enforcement Is Disrupting Care

The report finds that fear of enforcement and targeted arrests have pushed some caregivers away from formal day-care centers and licensed home-based programs into less visible, private household roles (babysitters, nannies, au pairs). That shift can reduce the number of available slots at regulated centers and make reliable care harder to find.

Chris M. Herbst, a co-author of the report and professor of public policy at Arizona State University, said: "It’s not surprising that we find that disruptions to the child-care market vis-à-vis an increase in immigration enforcement has led to a decline in the number of foreign-born workers, and because of the disruptions in the child-care market, this has led to spillovers in the labor market for mothers with kids more generally."

Who Is Most Affected

The decline in foreign-born child-care workers is sharpest among highly educated immigrants and those from Mexico. The study also documents about a 30% decrease in employment among U.S.-born Hispanic child-care workers, particularly Mexican Americans. Researchers note that some enforcement actions have also involved detaining U.S. citizens, producing a “chilling effect” that discourages U.S.-born workers from continuing in the sector.

Because child care is a complementary, not fully substitutable, part of the labor market, the loss of immigrant caregivers can reduce the ability of U.S.-born workers—especially mothers of preschoolers, including White and highly educated mothers—to remain employed.

Policy Context and Future Risks

The report places these labor-market effects in the context of the administration’s enforcement priorities. The decision to rescind “protected” or "sensitive location" guidance for places such as day cares has coincided with arrests near early-education centers, drawing public concern. Congress also approved legislation that includes approximately $170 billion over four years for immigration enforcement, including detentions and deportations, which researchers warn could amplify workforce disruptions as ICE expands staffing and arrests.

Herbst emphasized the broader trade-offs: "This policy has been sold as a way to expand opportunities for U.S.-born workers, but our findings show important trade-offs: enforcement-induced instability in child care can reduce employment for the very groups policymakers aim to help."

Broader Implications

Researchers warn that disruption in child care is likely only one example of where intensified immigration enforcement can harm industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor. The study builds on previous research showing similar effects from local immigration-status checks in earlier federal programs (2008–2013).

Data Sources: Better Life Lab at New America; federal labor statistics; newly compiled ICE arrest records (Sept. 2023–July 2025). Original reporting by Barbara Rodriguez for The 19th.