NOAA Forecast: Southeast — Including Georgia — Likely Warmer and Drier This Winter. Is Climate Change Amplifying the Shift?

New forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate the Southeast, including Georgia, is likely to be warmer than average from late November into December, with the full winter (December–February) also leaning warmer and drier across much of the South.

What’s driving the pattern

Meteorologists say several large-scale climate drivers are aligning in a way that could reshape weather across the United States this winter. The main influences are:

• La Niña — a Pacific cooling event that tends to shift the jet stream and typically favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern U.S.;
• Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a tropical storminess cycle that moves eastward and can modulate global weather patterns;
• Possible Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) — an uncommon early-season event that can disturb the polar vortex and sometimes bring cold outbreaks to mid-latitudes.

How climate change plays a role

Pam Knox, director of the University of Georgia weather network and the school's agricultural climatologist, noted that rising global temperatures are changing the background conditions these patterns operate within. "These patterns still occur, but they play out in a warmer atmosphere that raises the baseline temperature almost everywhere," she said.

"Areas that were warmer than normal due to La Niña get a little bit warmer and areas that would be cooler than normal are a little less cool," Knox said. "So areas that might once have looked likely to be colder than average can now appear closer to equal chances, while places with some chance of being warmer now have a better shot than in past years."

In short, a warmer planet mutes some of the cold extremes these oscillations would normally produce and makes extreme heat easier to reach, even though sharp cold spells can still happen.

Regional impacts and concerns

NOAA’s outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for much of the Southeast in late November and December. Over the full winter, the agency projects above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for large parts of the South, which raises drought concerns.

Southwest Georgia is already experiencing extreme drought, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Knox warned that the timing of this La Niña is especially concerning for that region, since La Niña winters typically bring drier conditions and could deepen or prolong the drought into spring.

What to watch for

• Short-term shifts: A potential SSW could briefly increase the risk of cold outbreaks in northern states even as the Southeast stays mild.
• Longer-term trend: If La Niña persists through winter, expect a higher chance of warm, dry conditions across the southern U.S.
• Local impacts: Farmers, water managers and utilities should monitor drought forecasts and prepare for continued stress on water supplies and winter crops in the driest areas.

Scientists continue to study whether climate change is altering the frequency or intensity of El Niño and La Niña events. While La Niñas have been more frequent in recent decades, it remains unclear whether that reflects long-term climate change or natural variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.