AccuWeather's analysis of 44 U.S. weather stations finds modest long-term warming, a decline in overall rainfall since 1995 and a sharp rise in extreme short-duration downpours. Rising dew points early on and falling relative humidity more recently point to drier soils that can amplify local warming, increase drought and wildfire risk, and threaten crop production. Researchers warn that some climate models may understate these localized extremes as soil drying changes how heat and moisture interact.
AccuWeather Warns: Climate Shifts Could Shrink U.S. Farmland, Fuel Droughts and Extreme Downpours
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A new analysis from AccuWeather, using 44 official U.S. weather stations in its Data Suite, highlights several climate trends that experts say could have major consequences for the economy, food and water supplies, human comfort, energy demand and public health over the coming decades.
Key Findings
AccuWeather reports that temperatures have risen at an average rate of about 0.5% per decade over the past 70 years. Since 1995, annual rainfall has declined by 2.7% (roughly 0.9% per decade). At the same time, short-duration extreme rainfall events have become markedly more common: 24-hour totals exceeding 4 inches increased by 70%, while heavy 24-hour events (>2 inches) rose by 23%.
Why Intense Downpours Hurt More Than They Help
Experts warn that much of the additional precipitation arrives in intense, brief bursts. That pattern limits infiltration into soil, produces more runoff and erosion, and is less effective at replenishing water supplies or supporting crops.
"When rain comes down very hard for only a short period, a lot of it runs off, causing flash flooding and leading to erosion," said Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.
Humidity, Dew Point and Drying Soils
The study found dew point temperatures climbed by about 0.3°F per decade, though most of that rise occurred before 1995. Since roughly 1995, relative humidity has fallen by 5.3% (≈1.7% per decade), suggesting a tipping point: rising temperatures paired with limited evaporation have left the air relatively drier.
"If this trend continues, desert areas will expand," said Dr. Joel Myers, AccuWeather's founder and executive chair.
Amplifying Feedbacks: Dry Soil, Hotter Air, Greater Risk
Dry soils reduce evaporative cooling. With less moisture available to evaporate, more incoming solar energy goes directly into heating the ground and near-surface air, accelerating local warming and making sudden droughts and wildfires more likely.
"There will be less and less moisture in the soil to dampen the rise in temperature," the AccuWeather report notes.
Models, Extremes and The Road Ahead
AccuWeather cautions that some widely used climate models may not fully capture these localized amplification effects or the increasing frequency of small-scale extreme events, such as very intense short-duration rainfall. Large-scale models can miss fine-scale processes that drive flash floods and other localized extremes.
The stakes are underscored by recent losses: in 2025, Climate Central recorded 23 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters with total damages around $115 billion.
What This Means
If current trends continue, AccuWeather researchers say the United States could see shrinking prime crop areas, lower yields even in productive regions, heightened wildfire risk and additional stress on water resources, with important implications for agriculture, energy demand and public welfare.
Methodology note: Findings are based on long-term station records compiled in AccuWeather's Data Suite from 44 official weather stations across the U.S.
Reporting includes direct quotes and interpretations from AccuWeather scientists Dr. Joel Myers and Brett Anderson.
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