Off-Year U.S. Elections Take on National Stakes — Governors, NYC Mayor and California Map in the Balance

Voters across the United States are casting ballots in off-year state and local elections that have drawn unusually intense national attention. High-profile contests — including competitive gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, the New York City mayoral election and a California redistricting measure — are being read as signals of how the public views President Donald Trump’s influence and each party’s strategy heading into future national campaigns.

National politics loom over local contests

Although many campaigns focus on local concerns such as public safety, housing and energy costs, the outcomes carry broader implications. President Trump has repeatedly clashed with governors and mayors over deployments of National Guard units and immigration enforcement, prompting Democrats to treat victories as opportunities to push back on his agenda and Republicans to view wins as reaffirmations of his coalition. The New York City mayoral race has attracted especially intense attention from the White House and social media.

Key races and ballot measures

New Jersey and Virginia governors

Competitive gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia are seen as referendums on national political trends. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia have run campaigns emphasizing the economy, public safety and health care while distancing themselves from the Democratic Party’s far-left policies. Their Republican opponents — Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia — have aligned closely with Trump’s positions. Analysts note that shifts in Trump’s popularity among union households, Black and Hispanic men, and younger voters could influence results, though turnout patterns in nonpresidential years often differ from presidential cycles.

New York City mayor

The three-way mayoral contest in New York City — featuring Zohran Mamdani (Democrat), Curtis Sliwa (Republican) and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (independent) — has drawn national scrutiny. Ranked-choice voting was used in the June Democratic primary but does not apply to the general election, where voters choose a single candidate. The race has included contentious exchanges over campaign messaging and religion, with Cuomo facing questions about whether some attacks on Mamdani stoked anti-Muslim sentiment. Trump’s unexpected endorsement of Cuomo added an unusual cross-party twist to the final stretch.

California redistricting measure (Prop. 50)

California voters are deciding whether to approve a proposal that would redraw the state’s U.S. House maps and could add seats favorable to Democrats. Supporters call it a response to a Trump-backed map in Texas; critics describe it as a partisan power grab. The measure has prompted heated debate in communities such as Norco, known as "Horsetown USA," where residents weighed the trade-offs between representation and perceived partisan advantage.

Maine red flag proposal

Maine residents are voting on whether to expand the state’s existing law so family members — in addition to police — can petition courts to restrict a person’s access to firearms. The measure follows the 2023 mass shooting in Lewiston that killed 18 people and an independent commission’s finding of missed intervention opportunities.

Special election in Houston

A special contest in Texas’ 18th Congressional District aims to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner. Sixteen candidates are on the ballot in the heavily Democratic district; if no one wins a majority, a runoff will follow. The election has been complicated by scheduling disputes and upcoming redistricting that will assign many residents to different districts next year.

Voting day issues and administration

Election Day also saw localized disruptions and administrative actions: bomb threats at multiple New Jersey polling places were investigated and deemed noncredible while law enforcement secured sites; Chester County, Pennsylvania, discovered that nearly 20% of nonmajor-party registrants were missing from initial poll books and deployed supplemental lists and provisional ballots; and the Department of Justice announced federal election observers would be sent to New Jersey and five California counties, a move that drew criticism from some Democrats who feared voter intimidation.

Voter concerns: shutdown, energy costs and public safety

Federal issues weighed on voters: a continuing government shutdown left many federal workers furloughed or working without pay, particularly in Virginia and New Jersey, potentially affecting turnout in tight races. Energy bills emerged as a key concern in the governors’ contests, with Democrats pitching clean-energy solutions and Republicans favoring traditional energy sources. Public-safety debates and local quality-of-life issues, such as homelessness and crime, also shaped several campaigns.

What to watch

Outcomes in these off-year contests will be closely read for signs of how Trump’s coalition is performing outside presidential years, whether moderate or progressive Democratic strategies gain traction, and how local issues interact with national narratives. Results from governors’ races, the NYC mayoral contest and California’s redistricting measure could influence messaging and strategy for both parties heading into the 2026–2028 cycle.