Next year’s congressional and gubernatorial primaries will shape both near-term nominees and the longer-term direction of the Democratic and Republican parties. Democrats are wrestling with strategy, ideology and generational change in high-profile primaries across Texas, Michigan, Minnesota and California. Republicans face loyalty tests driven by former President Trump and broader intra-party contests in states such as Kentucky, Georgia and Texas. Many primaries will also act as early proving grounds for potential 2028 presidential contenders.
Where the Parties Are Headed: Primaries to Watch That Will Shape 2026 and Beyond
Republican Sen. John Cornyn's primary in Texas is first up on the political calendar in 2026. (Bill Clark / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Next year’s hotly contested congressional and gubernatorial primaries will do more than name nominees for the midterms: they will be early battlegrounds in a broader struggle over the future direction of both major U.S. parties as they reckon with the fallout from the 2024 election.
Why These Primaries Matter
Democrats and Republicans are both wrestling with major questions about strategy, ideology and leadership. Decisions made in state and congressional primaries will help determine whether each party pivots, doubles down or reshapes itself — and they will set the stage for potential presidential hopefuls eyeing 2028.
Democratic Fault Lines: Strategy, Ideology and Generations
Although Democrats celebrated victories across many races this year, the party is still defining its post-2024 identity. Key questions include whether to emphasize pragmatic, center-left governance, embrace unapologetic progressive policy, or accelerate generational turnover by elevating younger leaders over long-serving incumbents.
March 3 in Texas is an early test: Rep. Jasmine Crockett has presented herself as a blunt critic of former President Trump who can build a “multiracial, multigenerational coalition,” while State Rep. James Talarico positions himself as a candidate willing to break with party orthodoxy to appeal across party lines.
Swing-state Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota are testing competing theories about how to win back voters. In Michigan, former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed runs as an unabashed progressive (backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders), State Sen. Mallory McMorrow casts herself as a pragmatic new-generation leader, and Rep. Haley Stevens positions herself as a center-left problem-solver who flipped a GOP district in 2018. In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has embraced a progressive lane with high-profile liberal endorsements, while Rep. Angie Craig argues for a big-tent approach to reach swing voters.
California’s top-two gubernatorial primary is another arena for intra-party debate: Xavier Becerra emphasizes health care; Katie Porter leans on progressive populism; Tom Steyer has pivoted to affordability and corporate accountability; Rep. Eric Swalwell highlights clashes with Trump; and Antonio Villaraigosa emphasizes executive experience.
GOP Loyalty Tests and Trump’s Shadow
Loyalty to former President Donald Trump continues to shape many Republican contests. Several primaries will test whether Trump’s endorsements and influence can reshape outcomes, punish dissenters and cement his movement’s priorities in the GOP.
In Kentucky, Trump backed a Navy veteran, Ed Galle, against Rep. Thomas Massie after Massie publicly criticized the president. In Georgia, Trump’s support has elevated Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in a crowded gubernatorial field. Louisiana’s Senate primary has become a flashpoint after Sen. Bill Cassidy — who voted to convict Trump after his second impeachment — faced primary opponents who embraced Trump and framed Cassidy’s vote as a betrayal.
Rep. Haley Stevens outside the U.S. Capitol on May 6. (Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images)
Across many races, candidates are staking out pro-Trump or anti-Trump credibility — and primary voters will weigh which approach better sells in increasingly polarized electorates.
Anti-Establishment Energy and Generational Challenges on the Left
Many Democrats are calling for generational change and challenging long-serving incumbents. Anti-establishment momentum is visible across the map, from Maine — where Gov. Janet Mills faces a challenge from younger Graham Platner — to New York primaries targeting members perceived as too aligned with pro-Israel groups.
Progressive groups have mounted insurgent efforts against incumbents they view as insufficiently aggressive toward Trump. Notable primary matchups include Nida Allam vs. Rep. Valerie Foushee (a rematch), challenges to Reps. Shri Thanedar and Diana DeGette, and Cori Bush’s bid to regain her former seat from Rep. Wesley Bell.
Age and fitness for office are also recurring themes: several veteran Democrats — including Reps. Mike Thompson and John Larson — face well-funded primary challengers who have raised significant early funds on a generational-change message.
Republican Civil Wars Beyond Trump
Even where Trump’s name is not the central dividing line, intra-GOP fights over ideology and tactics remain intense. In Texas, a long-running intra-party struggle has produced multiple primary challengers to Sen. John Cornyn, with debates spanning immigration and gun policy. Kentucky’s primary to replace Mitch McConnell has candidates vying to demonstrate conservative purity. Arizona and South Carolina feature crowded, competitive GOP gubernatorial fields fighting for the pro-Trump lane or more traditional conservative coalitions.
Several House Republicans also face energetic primary challenges from right-wing opponents, testing incumbents’ ties to Trump-aligned voters and conservative activists on issues such as foreign policy and spending.
Primaries as Stages for Future Presidential Contenders
Next year’s contests are also opportunities for potential 2028 contenders to build influence and test organizing strength. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker has weighed in on the Senate primary to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin by endorsing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. In Minnesota, a split field of endorsements from figures like Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Ruben Gallego, Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy and Chris Van Hollen underscores early jockeying among possible future presidential candidates.
On the Republican side, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s backing of Derek Dooley in a contentious GOP Senate primary could signal Kemp’s sway among Republican voters if Dooley prevails.
Bottom Line
Next year’s primaries will do double duty: selecting nominees for immediate midterm fights and signaling how each party intends to define itself — ideologically and generationally — ahead of future national contests.
Note: This article was originally published on NBCNews.com and has been edited for clarity, flow and readability while preserving the essential reporting.
