10 Governor Races To Watch In 2026 That Could Shape Midterm Politics

Thirty-six states will hold gubernatorial elections in 2026 — a sprawling map of contests that will help gauge voter sentiment midway through President Donald Trump’s second term and signal the trajectory of both major parties.

Democrats hope to build on momentum from 2025, when they emphasized affordability and economic concerns to win key governorships. Republicans, meanwhile, must contend with an active Trump influence as the former president intervenes in primaries and shapes general-election expectations.

Below are 10 races likely to attract national attention because they feature open seats, crowded primaries, close margins or important demographic dynamics.

Arizona

Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs — who won in 2022 by a narrow margin — enters a challenging re-election landscape. Hobbs has faced sub‑50% approval ratings and called this race among her toughest.

The GOP primary is competitive and potentially bruising, with Rep. Andy Biggs, Rep. David Schweikert and Karrin Taylor Robson among the declared candidates. Former President Trump has endorsed both Biggs and Taylor Robson at different points, a split that could complicate the party’s effort to unify around a single nominee.

California

Term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom’s seat has attracted a deep Democratic field: Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, activist Tom Steyer, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond and former Controller Betty Yee, among others. At least a handful of Republicans, led by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, are also running.

California’s jungle primary — where all candidates appear on the same ballot and the top two advance — could produce unexpected matchups and strategic campaigning focused on affordability and countering Trump’s influence.

Georgia

With Gov. Brian Kemp term-limited, Republicans including Attorney General Chris Carr, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger are competing for the nomination. Trump has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Jones.

Democrats have recruited high-profile figures such as former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (a onetime Republican). Despite Democratic gains at the federal level, Georgia has not elected a Democratic governor in decades, making this an uphill—but closely watched—contest.

Iowa

GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds is not seeking another term, opening a competitive field. State Auditor Rob Sand is the leading Democratic candidate, while Rep. Randy Feenstra is a top Republican prospect.

Iowa has leaned Republican in recent statewide contests, but Democrats have shown signs of competitiveness in special and local races — meaning this open seat bears watching if national conditions shift.

Kansas

With term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly leaving office, Republicans see a strong opportunity to flip the governorship in a state where registered Republicans significantly outnumber registered Democrats. The GOP field already includes former Gov. Jeff Colyer, Secretary of State Scott Schwab, state Senate President Ty Masterson and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt. Democrats Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson (note: Democratic candidate name corrected from earlier drafts) are among those competing to keep the seat.

Democrats are likely to make the race about protecting the social safety net and serving as a counterbalance to GOP legislative supermajorities.

Michigan

The open-seat contest to replace term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer features competitive primaries on both sides and the potential of a disruptive independent bid. Democrats include Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II; Republicans include Rep. John James, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and others.

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has signaled an independent run, which could turn the general election into a three-way contest and reshape traditional coalition-building across the state.

Nevada

Nevada looks like a bellwether: State Attorney General Aaron Ford is the clear Democratic frontrunner to challenge Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. The state’s economy — heavily dependent on gaming and hospitality — and its high Medicaid enrollment (roughly one in three residents) make policy shifts especially salient.

Ford has begun tying Lombardo to Trump, while Lombardo has at times distanced himself from the former president. The outcome will also test whether Latino voters — about one in five of Nevada’s electorate — remain aligned with Republicans after 2024.

Pennsylvania

Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is widely viewed as a potential 2028 presidential contender and is the favorite for re-election after a strong 2022 win and steady approval ratings. Republicans have coalesced around state Treasurer Stacy Garrity as a conventional alternative to the party’s 2022 nominee.

A decisive Shapiro victory would intensify presidential speculation and could help Democrats pursue legislative gains in the commonwealth.

South Carolina

The general election is unlikely to be competitive in this solidly Republican state, but the crowded GOP primary for an open seat could reveal the party’s future direction. Leading Republicans include Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman and Attorney General Alan Wilson; Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell are also in contention.

Trump’s endorsement remains a prized prize in the primary. The race has already grown acrimonious, with serious public allegations and disputes among candidates that could prolong the contest into a runoff.

Wisconsin

Gov. Tony Evers’ decision not to seek a third term has opened packed primaries. Democrats include former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state Sen. Kelda Roys and state Rep. Francesca Hong. Republicans include Rep. Tom Tiffany and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann.

Wisconsin remains a critical battleground after a narrow 2024 presidential result; Democrats plan to emphasize affordability while remaining flexible on messaging to respond to shifting voter concerns.

“Most of these races across the map are going to be a referendum on Trump and his economy,” said Mike Noble of Noble Predictive Insights. Veteran strategists stress that candidate quality and coherent affordability messaging will be decisive in many of these contests.

This story was originally published on NBCNews.com and has been edited for clarity and flow.