Three Issues Eroding Trump’s Core Support: Epstein Files, Immigration Tactics, and Affordability

Over the weekend, the Department of Justice published another batch of records from its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, the late financier and convicted sex trafficker who associated with a number of high-profile figures, including President Donald Trump. While the newly released files contain lurid details, unverified tips, and explicit photos, they do not appear to change the basic public record about Epstein’s crimes. Their release is notable chiefly because it followed intense pressure from a faction of Trump’s MAGA base and highlighted tensions between the administration and some of its core supporters.

1. The Epstein Files: Promise vs. Delivery

During the 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to make all Epstein-related records public — a pledge that resonated with many right-wing voters who hoped the files would expose broader wrongdoing. After taking office, however, he initially released only a small portion of the Justice Department’s records and dismissed continuing interest as a partisan hoax.

Congress later passed bipartisan legislation ordering the release of the remaining unclassified documents, which Trump signed more than two months ago. Still, the initial delay and the perception that information was being withheld left political damage: a recent CNN poll found roughly two-thirds of U.S. adults — and 42% of Republicans — said they believed the federal government was deliberately holding back information.

“It’s the biggest mistake he’s made,” conservative radio host John Fredericks told reporter Astead Herndon. “The Epstein files should have been released immediately, whatever’s in there.”

2. Immigration Enforcement: Hardline Policy, Unsettled Base

Immigration has become another source of friction. Trump took office with strong support for aggressive border enforcement, but some of the administration’s tactics have unsettled even sympathetic voters. As noted by Eric Levitz and observed in focus groups run by Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark, images and reports of masked agents conducting raids — in places like Minneapolis and elsewhere — have left many voters feeling uneasy.

That unease is visible inside the GOP: some recent surveys show roughly one-fifth of Republicans would consider abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and other supporters are questioning tactics they once endorsed.

3. Affordability: Promises vs. Pocketbook Reality

Perhaps the most consequential issue for Trump’s coalition is the persistent cost-of-living squeeze. He ran on promises to lower prices and “make America affordable again,” but tangible relief on everyday expenses has been slow to materialize. In Longwell’s focus groups, voters who initially gave the administration time to deliver results now express frustration and a sense of betrayal.

Polling reflects that discontent: six in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living issues, and a recent New York Times survey found fewer than 10% of Republicans describe the economy as “excellent.” Conservative commentators warn the political window to reverse that perception is narrowing ahead of the midterms.

What This Adds Up To

Taken together, the Epstein records controversy, contentious immigration enforcement actions, and ongoing affordability concerns are creating measurable strain within Trump’s core coalition. While it may be premature to declare a full-scale backlash, these three issues are eroding trust and enthusiasm among some Republican voters at a politically sensitive moment.