Immigration: The GOP’s Once-Reliable Advantage Is Eroding Ahead Of Midterms

Republicans long enjoyed a dependable political advantage: when the conversation turned to immigration and border security, the GOP usually prevailed. That advantage has begun to fray.

A steady stream of viral images from interior enforcement operations — alongside two recent killings in Minneapolis — have produced a public backlash against the Trump administration’s approach. Voters are increasingly uneasy with aggressive interior raids, and polling shows President Donald Trump’s standing on immigration has weakened ahead of the midterms.

Nationwide surveys paint a clear picture. A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found 58 percent of Americans say the crackdown has gone too far and only 39 percent approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, a notable drop from earlier polls. A Searchlight Institute survey of likely voters also found 58 percent favor reining in ICE’s powers.

Internal Democratic polling circulated by the Senate Majority PAC and shared with POLITICO shows growing disapproval of ICE and a majority who would support Democratic demands for reforms even if they led to a partial government shutdown — with voters saying they would blame Republicans and Mr. Trump for such an outcome. The memo highlighted the biggest shifts among moderates, non‑MAGA Republicans and key swing voters.

“The image that has been created is not a good thing,” said Jose Arango, Republican chair of Hudson County, New Jersey, a diverse county that swung right in 2024. “We’re losing in the public relations campaign.”

Even some Trump supporters voice unease. A POLITICO poll found a plurality of Americans view the president’s mass‑deportation plan as too aggressive; among 2024 Trump voters, one in five said the deportation campaign goes too far, and more than one in three said they support the president’s immigration goals in principle but disapprove of how they are being implemented.

Republican officials and strategists say the focus on interior enforcement rather than the southern border is part of the problem. Voters tend to approve border‑security measures more than raids inside communities — and images from interior operations have prompted criticism from unexpected corners, including commentators who had been receptive to Trump.

“The president can feel, generally, that his policies at the border have been largely supported by a majority of Americans. But what he’s doing inside the border seems to be not working,” said David Holt, Republican mayor of Oklahoma City.

One longtime GOP strategist, speaking on background, questioned the political logic of deploying ICE to places like Minnesota. “People want to see criminal illegal immigrants removed and more miles of wall being built,” the strategist said. “We talked about the wall weekly in Trump 1. I don’t remember the last time we talked about the wall in Trump 2.”

Democrats see an opening. Adam Jentleson, a former Senate aide who commissioned Searchlight’s polling, argued Democrats can reclaim the issue by combining credible enforcement with practical reform. Senator Ruben Gallego (D‑Ariz.) urged Democrats to build trust with swing voters by emphasizing professional, lawful enforcement while pursuing sensible immigration reform.

“We have to be the party that talks about professional, legal enforcement of our immigration laws, recognizing that criminals should be deported and the border must be secure, while also working toward a sane compromise on immigration reform,” Gallego told POLITICO.

If the GOP cannot refine its message and tactics, party strategists warn, the political cost could persist into 2026. Gallego specifically criticized the influence of figures associated with hardline enforcement, saying it risks alienating Latino and moderate voters.

Alec Hernández, Lisa Kashinsky and Ali Bianco contributed to this report.