Polymarket’s event contract currently places about a 10% chance that the U.S. will invade Greenland in 2026, with roughly $376,000 wagered. Market prices put “no” at about $0.91 and “yes” at $0.10, with a “yes” resolving if U.S. forces take control of any Greenland land by Dec. 31, 2026. Supporters in the White House cite strategic reasons tied to China and Russia; European and Danish officials warn an American move would be seen as aggression and could harm NATO ties. A related Polymarket contract gives a 17% probability that Trump acquires Greenland before 2027.
Polymarket Assigns 10% Chance to a U.S. Invasion of Greenland in 2026
Will US invade Greenland? Prediction market gauges chances
Polymarket’s new event contract currently prices the probability of a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 at roughly 10%, reflecting about $376,000 wagered so far on the question.
What the Market Shows
As of Sunday, shares betting against an invasion traded near $0.91, while shares backing a “yes” outcome were priced around $0.10. Polymarket defines a “yes” outcome as the U.S. military establishing control over any portion of Greenland’s land territory by Dec. 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Why This Matters
Greenland is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark with significant strategic importance in the Arctic. Some White House advisers argue U.S. control of Greenland would strengthen American security and serve as a counter to growing Chinese and Russian influence in the Arctic region.
International Reaction and Risks
European leaders and officials in Denmark say any unilateral U.S. move on Greenland would be regarded as an act of aggression and could strain or even jeopardize NATO cooperation. Analysts warn that military action would carry major diplomatic, legal and geopolitical consequences.
Related Market Contracts
Polymarket is also hosting a related contract, “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?”, which appears to allow for a voluntary transfer of sovereignty; that event currently shows about a 17% probability on the market.
Observers note that prediction markets can capture crowd-sourced expectations about uncertain events, though they operate in a regulatory gray area and are not definitive forecasts.
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