Senate Showdown: 5 Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2026

With less than a year until Election Day, control of the U.S. Senate is still up for grabs. Democrats need four pickups to retake the majority, and five races stand out as the likeliest to change hands: North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Each contest will hinge on candidate quality, primary dynamics and the national political environment.

North Carolina

Republicans are increasingly uneasy about Sen. Thom Tillis's (R) seat. Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) — unbeaten in six statewide races — represents perhaps the Democrats' best pickup opportunity in 2026. Michael Whatley, the likely GOP nominee and a former state party and RNC official aligned with former President Trump, may avoid a divisive primary but faces skepticism about whether he can define himself in a difficult year for Republicans.

A GOP operative with Senate race experience said Whatley is 'the worst-case generic Republican' and noted his prior work as an energy lobbyist could be a liability. Tillis has urged Republicans to counter Democratic messaging on affordability and health care, while downplaying the significance of early polling deficits for Whatley: 'Being behind doesn't matter. But you can't be behind by too much.'

Georgia

The contest for Sen. Jon Ossoff's (D) seat is a classic toss-up. A crowded Republican primary has already produced intraparty skirmishing, including an ad by a group backing Derek Dooley that criticized other GOP hopefuls and tied them to Ossoff — a move that prompted pushback from national Senate GOP groups. That infighting underscores the challenge Republicans face in uniting around a standout challenger.

Ossoff, well-funded and politically cautious, voted against the deal to reopen the government and appears focused on staying aligned with the Democratic base. Political strategists say the race will largely be a referendum on the national environment: a GOP-friendly climate could tip Georgia toward Republicans, while a neutral or unfavorable environment could hand the seat to Ossoff.

Maine

The Democratic primary to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) has quickly become competitive. Gov. Janet Mills (D) entered after recruitment efforts by party leaders, but Graham Platner — an oyster farmer, veteran and Bernie Sanders-backed candidate — has surged, energizing voters and altering national expectations.

Platner's rise has drawn scrutiny, including reports about a controversial tattoo and offensive social-media posts, raising questions about the durability of his momentum. National Democrats still view Mills as the safest option to defeat Collins, but some worry that an unconventional nominee or lingering dynamics favoring Collins could complicate the path to a Democratic pickup.

Michigan

Michigan remains a top GOP target. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) returns after narrowly losing to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2024. Republicans note differences between 2024 and 2026 — including an expected competitive Democratic primary — but some operatives worry Rogers' ceiling may be limited despite a solid baseline of support.

Democrats are set to choose among Reps. Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed in an August primary. Each runs from a distinct lane: Stevens as the establishment pick, McMorrow as a media-savvy outsider, and El-Sayed appealing to progressives. Retiring Sen. Gary Peters emphasized that the Democratic contenders need broader name recognition: 'At this point, the name game is pretty important.'

New Hampshire

The open New Hampshire seat to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) has been reshaped by the entrance of former Sen. John Sununu (R). Backed by many House Republicans and polling as a strong general-election option for the GOP, Sununu revives a race that was once viewed as more favorable to Democrats.

Questions remain about how well Sununu's style and appeal will translate in a state that favored the Democratic presidential nominee in the last cycle. He could face Rep. Chris Pappas (D), a proven campaigner with strong local roots. One GOP operative cautioned that John is not his brother Chris and said there are lingering questions about likability and campaign strength — underscoring that the national environment will matter greatly in a tight contest.

Bottom line: North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire offer the clearest paths for a shift in Senate control. Outcomes will depend on primary results, candidate quality and whether national political winds favor one party or the other. With Democrats needing four pickups, even a few surprises in these races could decide control of the chamber.