The 2026 midterms could be reshaped by another wave of mid-decade redistricting. After six states adopted new maps this year, Republicans netted up to nine favorable seats while Democrats gained six. Virginia and Florida are the most likely states to push redraws in 2026, but progress hinges on timing and a potentially decisive Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act that could enable broader changes in the South.
How Middecade Redistricting Could Reshape the 2026 Midterms
Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. (Getty Images; AP)
The 2026 midterm elections may be decided not only by voters but also by how congressional district lines are redrawn in the months ahead. After six states adopted new maps this year, several more — most notably Virginia and Florida — could join a mid-decade redistricting scramble that would affect control of the U.S. House.
Where Things Stand
This year’s midcycle push produced new maps in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina, moves that together could yield Republicans as many as seven seats. California’s voter-approved response could give Democrats up to five seats, largely offsetting those GOP gains. Overall, Republicans finished the year with as many as nine newly favorable seats and Democrats with six.
Other notable outcomes so far include Ohio, where a bipartisan deal on a map redo is likely to net Republicans only one or two seats; Utah, where a court-ordered map created a new Democratic-leaning district; and Indiana, where lawmakers rejected a proposed map that would have added two GOP seats after intense pressure from former President Donald Trump.
Key States To Watch in 2026
Virginia
Virginia Democrats advanced a legislative strategy this fall to allow a mid-decade congressional map if another state acts similarly and no court order blocks it. The Legislature passed the first of two required constitutional amendments in October; the measure must pass again next year before going to voters. The maneuver is designed to bypass the bipartisan redistricting commission created by voters five years ago. If successful, Democrats have signaled they could target up to four Republican seats. Lawmakers face timing pressure: the current primary filing deadline is April 2, though officials could move that date to accommodate a new map.
Florida
Florida’s Republican-led Legislature is widely expected to pursue redistricting next year, but the state’s constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering and internal GOP divisions — including differing priorities between Gov. Ron DeSantis and legislative leaders — complicate the path forward. Republicans hold 20 of Florida’s 28 seats and hope a new map could produce three to five pickups. DeSantis prefers to wait for a pending Supreme Court ruling in a Voting Rights Act case that could make redrawing maps easier for GOP-led states.
Kansas, Maryland, Illinois, Missouri
Kansas Republican leaders have said they will revisit redistricting when the legislature reconvenes in January, but they would need two-thirds support to override a veto from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Kansas offers limited upside for Republicans because the state has only one Democratic-held district.
Democrats’ options outside Virginia are similarly limited. In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore formed a redistricting commission that has voted to explore new lines, but the state Senate has so far declined to take up a map change. In Illinois, concerns from Black lawmakers about weakening minority representation and an early candidate filing deadline make major changes unlikely.
In Missouri, opponents of a GOP-drawn September map have submitted a referendum petition seeking to repeal the plan. State officials have said they will not pause the map while signatures are verified, a decision that may prompt further legal challenges.
The Big Wild Card: The Supreme Court
The most consequential uncertainty is a pending Supreme Court decision in a Louisiana redistricting case that appears likely to narrow protections under the Voting Rights Act. If the court weakens the statute’s reach, Republican-led states — particularly in the South — could be empowered to redraw majority-Black districts that currently elect Democrats. Louisiana’s Legislature has already passed measures to delay its election calendar in case a favorable ruling requires additional time to redraw maps.
Potential targets include majority-Black districts in South Carolina (home to Rep. Jim Clyburn) and seats in Alabama; but timing matters. If the Court issues a major ruling late in its term (commonly in June), any resulting map changes would likely come too late to affect the 2026 election cycle.
Bottom Line
Redistricting this cycle is unfolding as a highly strategic, high-stakes battle with both parties seeking narrow advantages. While Republicans scored more favorable map changes overall this year, Democrats preserved and reclaimed ground in some key places. The coming months — and especially the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act — will determine whether the 2026 map landscape changes again before voters cast ballots.
We’re still squarely in the middle of this redistricting crisis, said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
