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Bardella Tops 2027 Presidential Polls as France Shifts Right

An Odoxa survey shows 30-year-old Jordan Bardella leading several hypothetical 2027 presidential run-offs amid political instability in France. The poll gives Bardella 53% versus Édouard Philippe, 56% versus Gabriel Attal, 58% versus Raphaël Glucksmann and 74% against Jean‑Luc Mélenchon. Odoxa cautions it is too early to call the race, noting past campaigns undone by scandal. Bardella's TikTok-driven rise and national tour have boosted his profile, but critics point to his limited formal experience.

04:50 PM, 11/25/2025Politics
Bardella Tops 2027 Presidential Polls as France Shifts Right

An Odoxa poll released this week places 30-year-old Jordan Bardella, the face of France's hard right, in the lead across multiple hypothetical 2027 presidential run-off matchups. The survey comes amid political turbulence following a string of resignations among Prime Ministers in Emmanuel Macron's administration.

Pollsters modelled several head-to-head scenarios under France's two-round system and found Mr Bardella ahead in every tested pairing. Against his closest rival, Édouard Philippe, Bardella leads by six points in a hypothetical final round, taking 53% of the vote. He scores 56% versus Gabriel Attal, 58% against Raphaël Glucksmann, and a commanding 74% in a matchup with Jean‑Luc Mélenchon.

“Being the overwhelming favourite several months before an election is no guarantee of success,” the Odoxa report warns, noting past campaigns that collapsed under scandal, including those of François Fillon and Dominique Strauss‑Kahn.

Mr Bardella's rise has been propelled by an energetic digital strategy—notably on TikTok—along with a recently published book and a nationwide speaking tour. His growing popularity has outpaced that of his mentor, Marine Le Pen, who is currently barred from seeking public office for five years after a conviction for embezzling EU funds; she has appealed the ruling but acknowledges that any reversal would likely come too late for a campaign, leaving Bardella as the obvious standard-bearer for their movement.

Some commentators draw parallels between Bardella and other young, media-savvy politicians. Dominique Moïsi, a veteran political analyst, observed that although Bardella and figures like New York mayor Zohran Mamdani are ideologically different, both have appealed to younger voters through energetic, digital-first messaging.

Critics question whether Bardella's résumé is sufficient for the presidency. He has not attended university, has no record of running a government ministry, and apart from a brief period working with his father, has not held a job outside the National Rally (RN). Philippe Moreau Chevrolet, a political communications expert, warned that voters expect a president to answer complex, wide-ranging questions and cautioned that populism still faces structural limits in France.

With the election still about a year and a half away, poll watchers stress that fortunes can change quickly. The Odoxa poll highlights a notable shift to the right in public sentiment today, but it stops short of declaring any sure outcomes for 2027.

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