California Could Elect a Republican Governor in 2026 — Here's How

California is widely seen as a Democratic stronghold, but the state's unique election rules and a crowded Democratic field make a Republican victory in the 2026 governor's race a realistic possibility.

How the top-two primary changes the calculus

California uses a top-two primary system in which all candidates — regardless of party — appear on a single primary ballot and the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election. That means two Republicans could theoretically finish first and second in June, guaranteeing a GOP governor in November if Democratic votes are split among many contenders.

Who’s in the race

Several well-known Democrats have already entered or are considering runs, including:

• Katie Porter (former U.S. representative)
• Antonio Villaraigosa (former Los Angeles mayor)
• Xavier Becerra (former HHS secretary)
• Tom Steyer (billionaire activist)
• Tony Thurmond (state superintendent of public instruction)
• Betty Yee (California Democratic Party chair)
• Eric Swalwell (U.S. representative, recent entrant)

On the Republican side, the field is smaller, with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former television host Steve Hilton among the declared candidates. Rick Caruso, who switched from the GOP when he ran for Los Angeles mayor, is also mentioned as a possible contender.

Why vote-splitting matters

Republicans typically win roughly 35%–40% of the statewide vote. If two GOP candidates split that base evenly — for example, 18% and 17% — a fragmented Democratic electorate could allow both Republicans to finish among the top two if Democratic support is dispersed across five or more candidates. That scenario would push Democrats out of the general election entirely.

What could prevent a GOP advance

• Consolidation: A single Democratic candidate emerging as a clear frontrunner would make a GOP top-two outcome unlikely.
• Strategic withdrawals: Lower-polling Democrats could drop out to avoid diluting the vote.
• Endorsements: High-profile endorsements from figures like Gov. Gavin Newsom or leading senators could help unify the Democratic electorate.
• Late-deciding voters: Polls show many voters remain undecided; their choices could dramatically reshape the field before the primary.

Where things stand

Recent polls have shown at least one Republican polling competitively and another in the top three, while Democratic support has been spread across several candidates. Some Democrats have seen declines after high-profile missteps. However, polls were taken before Eric Swalwell's announcement and before any potential endorsements or withdrawals that could change dynamics.

Bottom line: The combination of a crowded Democratic field and California's top-two primary creates a real, though avoidable, pathway for Republicans to win the governorship in 2026. Much will depend on consolidation, strategic exits, endorsements and how undecided voters break as the primary approaches.