Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data analyst, warns that Donald Trump’s continued focus on the 2020 election risks alienating voters and could hurt Republican midterm prospects. Enten highlighted an FBI search at Georgia’s Fulton County Election Hub and noted polling and prediction markets that favor Democrats in key contests. With a slim House majority, the GOP faces a difficult path to retain control if attention remains fixed on 2020 rather than current issues.
CNN Data Analyst Warns Trump’s 2020 Fixation Could Cost GOP In Midterms
Donald Trump has now entered his sixth year of pushing false claims about the 2020 election results. / Samuel Corum/Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s repeated focus on the 2020 election — which he continues to dispute despite widespread rejection of those claims — may be creating political headwinds for Republican candidates heading into the midterms, CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten warned.
What Enten Says
Enten argued that voters are increasingly turned off by continued efforts to rehash long-debunked allegations of widespread fraud in the 2020 race. Speaking on CNN’s News Central, he said the sustained emphasis on the election’s legitimacy is "not a winner for Republicans."
"This is not a winner for Republicans. It’s not a winner," Enten said. "You go to the last midterm election, 2022 — Georgia voters were asked whether [Joe] Biden’s win was legitimate or illegitimate. Fifty-eight percent said the win was legitimate. Democrats are begging, begging, for the 2026 election to be about the legitimacy of the 2020 election."
Georgia And The FBI Search
Enten pointed to recent developments in Georgia, where the FBI searched the Fulton County Election Hub and Operations Center — a site Trump and his allies have long highlighted in their claims about the 2020 result. That attention, Enten said, gives Democratic candidates ammunition to argue that Republican messaging remains focused on a past loss rather than on current issues.
The FBI Raid on a Fulton County election office in Georgia is part of the Trump administration’s wider effort to push false claims of voter fraud. / Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images
Polling And Prediction Markets
Enten referenced public-opinion data showing roughly 60% of Americans believed Joe Biden won "fair and square" in November 2020, a share that rose to about 62% in 2024. He also cited online prediction markets that at the time of his remarks showed the likely Democratic Senate nominee and incumbent, Sen. Jon Ossoff, with approximately an 80% chance of winning re-election in Georgia.
"Every moment that Donald Trump talks about the 2020 election is a chance for Jon Ossoff to boost his probability of winning," Enten said. "He would absolutely love for Donald Trump to continue on with his diatribe, his obsession — one that the American people do not believe, and Georgia voters don’t believe either."
Implications For The Midterms
Historically, the party that holds the White House tends to lose seats in midterm elections. With Republicans holding a narrow House majority, Enten and others warn that a prolonged focus on 2020 could make it harder for the GOP to defend vulnerable seats — and could also make the Senate more competitive for Democrats.
Whether Republican candidates pivot to policy-focused messaging or continue to amplify disputes over the 2020 result could influence turnout, swing voters and the final outcomes in tight races such as Georgia's Senate contest.
Help us improve.
