Scotland's first minister, John Swinney, said the SNP would push for a fresh independence referendum if it wins a majority in May's Scottish Parliament elections, and suggested such a result could threaten Sir Keir Starmer's premiership. The SNP is appealing to pro-independence voters for a decisive mandate as Welsh parliament and English local elections take place the same week. Swinney cited the 2016 Brexit vote as having changed the political context since the 2014 independence referendum, while the UK Supreme Court says any lawful second referendum requires Westminster approval.
Swinney Says SNP Majority In May Would Trigger Fresh Independence Push — Could Threaten Starmer
First Minister of Scotland John Swinney speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City, U.S., April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper/File Photo
LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) — Scotland's first minister, John Swinney, said on Sunday he would press for a fresh independence referendum if the Scottish National Party (SNP) wins a majority in the Scottish Parliament elections in May. He added that such an outcome could potentially end Sir Keir Starmer's premiership.
Swinney, who leads the pro-independence SNP that has governed Scotland for nearly 19 years, appealed directly to voters who favour independence to deliver a decisive majority. The May electoral calendar also includes Welsh Parliament elections and local polls in parts of England.
Referendum Context
In the 2014 referendum, Scots voted 55% to 45% against leaving the more-than-300-year-old union with England. Nationalists argue the political landscape shifted after the 2016 Brexit vote — which a majority of Scottish voters opposed — and that change justifies revisiting the independence question.
Legal And Political Hurdles
The UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold a lawful second independence referendum without approval from the British parliament at Westminster. Swinney acknowledged that legal constraint but said a strong electoral mandate would bolster the SNP's case politically.
Yes ... I am being straightforward ... if people in Scotland want Scotland to become independent the SNP has got to do really well in this forthcoming election.
Swinney also predicted that a successful SNP majority could alter the UK leadership landscape, saying he did not expect Keir Starmer to remain prime minister by the end of the year if the SNP secures a majority.
Reporting: Elizabeth Piper. Editing: Louise Heavens.
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