Maduro’s Regional Support Erodes After Two Election Defeats — Who’s Left?

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has suffered fresh diplomatic setbacks after two governments that had supported Caracas were replaced in recent elections, even as the United States increases its naval presence in the Caribbean.

Election losses weaken Caracas’ ties

In Honduras, preliminary results showed Rixi Moncada, a protégé of President Xiomara Castro, slipping to a distant third place, leaving two right-leaning contenders — Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura — who have pledged to curtail ties with Venezuela. Asfura recently received a public endorsement from U.S. President Donald Trump.

In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, long-time Maduro ally Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves was voted out after nearly 25 years in office. The center-right New Democratic Party, led by Godwin Friday, won 14 of 15 parliamentary seats, signaling a sharp turn away from Caracas.

Broader regional shift away from Chavismo

These defeats add to a wider trend of countries distancing themselves from the Chavista movement that began under Hugo Chávez and continued under Maduro. Even governments led by left-leaning presidents — including Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia — have imposed limits on relations with Caracas, especially following Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election in which Maduro was declared the winner amid widespread questions about the vote’s legitimacy.

Relationships across Latin America have fluctuated for decades as governments swing between left and right. Colombia, which shares a long border with Venezuela and wrestles with transnational drug-trafficking challenges, initially restored diplomatic ties under President Gustavo Petro but has since adopted a more cautious posture. Petro has said he does not believe Maduro is connected to drug trafficking allegations while criticizing the Venezuelan government’s democratic deficits and lack of dialogue.

Argentina’s ties with Venezuela strengthened under Néstor and Cristina Kirchner but cooled under Mauricio Macri and retreated further following Javier Milei’s 2023 election. Other nations that have shifted right in recent years — including Ecuador, El Salvador and Bolivia — have also reduced support for Maduro.

Who remains allied with Caracas?

Cuba remains Venezuela’s most reliable political ally: Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez publicly stated that Havana fully supports the Venezuelan government, though he declined to outline any military response to a hypothetical U.S. intervention. Given Cuba’s severe economic challenges, it appears unlikely to offer substantial military assistance.

Nicaragua, under Daniel Ortega, continues to voice political sympathy for Maduro but has provided little concrete help amid rising tensions. Ortega condemned the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, accusing Washington of economic motives tied to Venezuelan oil.

U.S. military presence and Maduro’s response

The Pentagon has deployed more than a dozen warships and roughly 15,000 troops to the Caribbean as part of an operation described by U.S. officials as "Operation Southern Spear." White House discussions on next steps have intensified, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Maduro replied to the growing pressure with defiance, saying sanctions and threats had not cowed Venezuelans: “It’s been sanctions, threats, blockades, economic war, and Venezuelans did not cower. Here, as they say, everyone put on their boots and went to work.” People close to him say he prefers to preserve negotiating leverage and will not surrender key cards unless forced to do so.

Outlook

If tensions in the Caribbean escalate into a broader confrontation, Venezuela would be left with only a handful of regional partners and limited practical support. Maduro appears to be banking on the low appetite among parts of the U.S. public and political base for a prolonged foreign intervention, while continuing to prepare for negotiations that could secure concessions without ceding control.