What Would It Take for Nicolás Maduro to Relinquish Power? Experts Say the Bar Is Very High

What will become of Nicolás Maduro? With a reported $50 million bounty on his head, visible US intelligence activity in Caracas and US forces reportedly massing in the Caribbean, commentators and politicians across the Americas are debating the Venezuelan president’s future.

Some observers have called for a forcible removal of Maduro, drawing parallels to past high-profile ousters. In recent opinion pieces, prominent commentators advocated considering an outright overthrow. Others, including Colombia’s foreign minister Rosa Yolanda Villavicencio Mapy, have suggested a negotiated, managed transition could be “the healthiest” option — one that would allow Maduro to step down without immediate prosecution and open the door to legitimate elections.

Colombia’s government later clarified that the minister’s remarks should not be read as an effort to interfere in another country’s internal affairs.

Maduro, who took office in 2013 after Hugo Chávez’s death, has faced mounting international pressure since a disputed 2024 election that most Western governments did not recognize. The United States has long accused him of running a corrupt network commonly known as “el Cartel de los Soles.” The Trump administration formally labeled that network a terrorist organization — a designation some analysts say could be used to justify stronger measures, including potential military options.

Why he is unlikely to step down voluntarily

Analysts who follow Venezuela broadly agree that Maduro and his inner circle are unlikely to relinquish power of their own accord. Their reluctance stems from several interlocking concerns: fear of arrest or extradition, preservation of wealth, and deep ideological commitment to Chavismo — the socialist movement founded by Hugo Chávez.

“The US is one of the few countries in the world that if you mess with them, they can chase you until the end of the world,” said Elías Ferrer, a Caracas-based risk consultant at Orinoco Research. “They are facing a very real danger.”

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has publicly vowed that the country will “not surrender,” framing the moment as one of historic definition and resistance to outside pressure.

“They are worried about their safety, and they are worried about their wealth,” said David Smilde, a Venezuela specialist and professor at Tulane University. “But they also think of themselves as revolutionaries, as an anti‑imperialist, historically important project.”

Smilde argues that any credible transition would need guarantees allowing Chavismo to remain a viable political force and protections against post‑transition reprisals. Without such assurances, he says, Maduro’s inner circle will be highly reluctant to relinquish control.

Some analysts point to exile as a potential off‑ramp. Brian Fonseca, a professor at Florida International University, suggested Russia could be an option — but only if significant pressure from within the political or military elite pushes Maduro out. Others, like Ferrer, doubt Maduro’s circle would accept exile and instead expect a pragmatic arrangement that preserves their economic standing and influence over the armed forces.

Why removing Maduro may not change the system

Experts warn that even if Maduro leaves, the broader network that benefits from the regime could remain intact. Smilde notes that Maduro has built a pyramid of beneficiaries who profit from the existing order — removing the figurehead does not automatically dismantle those entrenched interests.

Recalling the aftermath of Chávez’s death in 2013, Smilde points out that the loss of a leader did not end the political project: “People thought it was over — but nothing actually changed.”

In short, analysts say any exit will likely require either coercion from within Maduro’s ruling coalition, legally or politically binding guarantees that protect Chavista interests, or a negotiated deal that addresses legal and security fears. A simple, voluntary departure without such safeguards is seen as very unlikely.