How Tight Is the Texas Senate Race? Rove Says Paxton Must Debate Talarico — Or Risk Losing

Republican strategist Karl Rove warned Friday that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could jeopardize his Senate bid if he continues to avoid a televised debate with Democratic challenger James Talarico. Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago alongside Democratic strategist David Axelrod, Rove argued a head-to-head debate is essential in what has become one of the nation's most closely watched Senate contests.

"If he doesn't debate, I think he loses," Rove said. "If he debates, the question is, 'Is he going to be able to go on the offense?'

When Axelrod suggested Paxton might be dodging debates because he is not a strong performer in front of cameras, Rove dismissed the idea:

"You don't need to be adroit in this. The question is, does he have the guts to do it?"

Debate Standoff

Talarico has repeatedly challenged Paxton to a televised debate — most recently proposing a Fox News forum — and a Fox spokesperson said the network would be willing to host if both candidates agree. Paxton adviser Nick Maddux has said the attorney general would "of course" debate Talarico, but no date or moderator has been confirmed. Reports indicate Paxton's campaign has declined multiple debate opportunities, including a proposed CNBC/CNN-style forum.

Polling Snapshot

The race is extraordinarily tight. A PollsMax average published Thursday showed Talarico ahead by just 0.2 percentage points. A recent Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll (Sept. 15–19, 1,800 likely Texas voters) put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, with 3% supporting another candidate and 4% undecided.

A Fox News poll released the same day found Talarico with a net personal rating of +8 while Paxton was net underwater. That survey also suggested Republicans were far more likely to view Paxton unfavorably than Democrats were to view Talarico.

Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, left, speaks in Laredo, Texas, on July 14, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, right, addresses the crowd at the Republican National Convention in Dallas on September 9.

Issues Driving the Race

Both campaigns are staking out distinct priorities. Talarico emphasizes affordability, health care and ethics; Paxton highlights immigration enforcement, border security and alignment with former President Donald Trump's agenda. Internal GOP conversations, Rove said, indicate the contest is more competitive than party leaders expected — and that Paxton's political baggage has complicated a race that might otherwise favor Republicans.

AI Enters the Campaign

Unexpectedly, artificial intelligence and the rapid growth of AI data centers in Texas have become campaign issues. Paxton argues the U.S. must remain competitive with China in AI development while supporting restrictions on data centers' energy and water usage; he has proposed banning certain Chinese technologies from U.S. data-center infrastructure and holding companies liable if AI tools harm children. Paxton has argued that failing to compete would leave the U.S. vulnerable.

Talarico frames AI primarily as a consumer-protection and affordability concern. His campaign wants AI companies to pay for their own electricity and water infrastructure rather than shifting costs to local communities, give communities more say over data-center siting, and explore an "AI dividend" to share economic gains generated by AI with Americans. Both candidates say they support continued innovation alongside stronger oversight.

Closing Stretch

The closing weeks are expected to be high-stakes: early voting in Texas runs Oct. 19–30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. Paxton has faced renewed scrutiny recently after leaked audio and renewed attention to his post-2020 actions; President Trump quipped at a rally that Paxton can be "a pain in the ass" but later called him "the greatest attorney general in the United States of America."

A debate could be one of the most-watched moments of the campaign and potentially shift momentum in an exceptionally close contest.

Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, an AI assistant, to help produce this story.