Alaska’s primary advances up to four ranked candidates to statewide general elections under an all‑party primary with ranked‑choice voting. The Senate contest between Democrat Mary Peltola and incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is a tight toss‑up, with recent polls showing mixed results and some projecting narrow Peltola leads. Ballot name confusion, outside spending and shifting national ratings have amplified the stakes of this closely watched race.
Alaska Senate Race Is a True Toss-Up as Ranked‑Choice System Adds Drama
AP
When Alaskans vote in Tuesday’s statewide primary, they won’t simply pick a single nominee. Under the state’s all‑party primary and ranked‑choice system, voters may rank up to four candidates for U.S. Senate, the lone U.S. House seat and the governor’s office; the top four finishers in each primary advance to a ranked‑choice general election where a candidate must exceed 50% to win.
Why This Senate Race Matters
The U.S. Senate contest is widely viewed as a genuine toss‑up. Of roughly 16 Senate hopefuls, former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola (D) has emerged as the leading challenger to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), who has held the seat since 2016. Polling in Alaska is often volatile because of the state’s geography and dispersed population, but recent surveys regularly show a close race.
Recent Polling
Alaska Survey Research’s August poll projected Peltola winning a narrow 50.8% in a final ranked‑choice round against Sullivan; the firm’s March survey also found Peltola ahead, though below 50%. A June New York Times/Siena poll showed Sullivan leading by two points in the first ranked‑choice round, with about 5% undecided. A Data for Progress poll published Monday — from a left‑leaning group — forecasted a roughly six‑point advantage for Peltola. Over the past two years, outlets such as Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have moved Alaska from Solid Republican to Toss Up.
Electoral Dynamics And Complications
Sullivan, a Marine Corps veteran and former state attorney general who served in the George W. Bush administration, is generally more closely aligned with former President Donald Trump than Alaska’s other senator, Lisa Murkowski. Still, both Trump and Sullivan have seen approval ratings slide in the state: a March Alaska Survey Research poll found 47.4% of Alaskan voters held a very negative view of Trump while just 22.6% reported a positive view. (Trump carried Alaska in the last three presidential elections, with a 13‑point margin in 2024.)
The ballot itself has added another twist: former teacher Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. is also running — and will appear on the ballot as "Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr." — while the incumbent is listed as "Dan S. Sullivan, Registered Republican, Incumbent." The NRSC has alleged the similarly named candidate is intended to confuse voters; both Daniel J. Sullivan and Peltola’s campaign have denied any collusion.
Outside Spending And Endorsements
Over the weekend, a super PAC tied to former Vice President Kamala Harris emailed supporters urging them to back Peltola. Peltola’s campaign has worked to distance her from out‑of‑state endorsements, saying she “isn't seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48.” Harris lost Alaska by nearly 20 points in her contest there, a wider defeat than Joe Biden’s loss in 2020.
Down‑Ballot Races
Alaska has a single U.S. House seat: incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Begich is running to keep it against a crowded field; he defeated Peltola for the seat in 2024. Although Peltola is a registered Democrat, she holds several pro‑oil positions that differentiate her from the national Democratic caucus. The governor’s contest is also competitive: 17 candidates are seeking to succeed term‑limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy.
Bottom line: Ranked‑choice rules, a crowded field, outside spending and name confusion on the ballot have combined to make Alaska’s Senate race unusually unpredictable — and potentially decisive for control of the Senate.
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