White House Strategy Warns Mass Migration Could Make Europe 'Unrecognizable' Within 20 Years

White House National Security Strategy Raises Alarm Over Migration and Demographics

The White House’s newly released 33-page National Security Strategy warns that, if current trends continue, Europe could be "unrecognizable in 20 years or less." The document attributes this possibility to large migration flows from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, declining birthrates and what it describes as an erosion of national identity.

"Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less," the strategy says, adding the "real and more stark prospect" of "civilizational erasure."

The paper argues these demographic and cultural shifts could have serious implications for European economies, militaries and the future reliability of U.S. alliances on the continent. It suggests that over the coming decades some NATO members could become "majority non-European," raising questions about whether they will view their place in the world or their alliance with the United States in the same way as earlier signatories of the NATO charter.

Economic and Security Concerns

The strategy highlights Europe’s changing economic position, noting the continent’s share of global GDP fell from roughly 25% in 1990 to about 14% today. The document attributes part of this decline to national and transnational regulations that, it says, can undermine "creativity and industriousness," though it emphasizes that cultural and demographic shifts drive the broader warning of potential "civilizational erasure."

To illustrate the administration’s case, the report cites European studies and statistics: an estimate of asylum migration costs in the Netherlands of €475,000 per migrant, a reported cost to France of €1.8 billion related to illegal immigration in 2023, and figures it says show non-Western migrants account for disproportionate shares of violent crime in countries such as Denmark and Germany. The White House also refers to several fatal terror attacks across Europe carried out by migrants.

Administration Response and Rhetoric

The document includes a foreword by President Donald Trump and has no named single author. In statements to the press, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defended the language used, saying the "devastating impacts of unchecked migration and those migrants’ inability to assimilate" are a concern for Europeans and Americans alike. Kelly argued open-border policies have led to increased violence and fiscal strain on social safety nets and said the administration’s border policies have "saved America from such destruction."

"These open border policies have led to widespread examples of violence, spikes in crime, and more, with detrimental impacts on the fiscal sustainability of social safety net programs," the White House said in a statement.

Broader Geopolitical Agenda

Beyond Europe, the strategy sets out a broader geopolitical agenda for the administration, including a pledge to reassert the Monroe Doctrine with what it calls a "Trump Corollary" to counter foreign influence in the Western Hemisphere and to restore U.S. influence in the region. The document frames a cooperative, stable Western Hemisphere as central to U.S. national security.

The report has drawn attention for its stark tone and for blending demographic, economic and security arguments. Coverage of the strategy has noted its contentious claims and the political context in which it was released.

Source: White House 33-page National Security Strategy (foreword by President Trump); statements to press by White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. Reporting contributions noted in the original release.