ATSB Study: Hot Air Balloons About 10× Riskier Per Flight Than Helicopters or Small Planes

A report from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) shows that hot air balloon flights carry a substantially higher rate of serious incidents and accidents on a per‑flight basis compared with equivalent helicopter and small‑plane operations.

Key findings

The ATSB reviewed 79 balloon-related occurrences reported between 2014 and 2022. On a per‑flight basis, the bureau found the rate of serious incidents and accidents for balloon operations was roughly ten times greater than for comparable helicopter and small chartered aeroplane operations. Importantly, there were no fatal hot‑air‑balloon incidents recorded in the study period.

Primary risk factors:

• Wind: Wind was identified as a safety factor in 35 of the 79 incidents. Those wind‑related events resulted in eight serious incidents and five accidents.
• Landing phase: Landings were the most accident‑prone stage of balloon flights, reflecting the challenges of descending into variable terrain, obstacles and changing winds.
• Assessment and planning: Problems with flight assessment and planning were cited in 15 incidents and were associated with seven serious incidents and three accidents.

What the ATSB recommends

The report underscores the importance of rigorous pre‑flight decision making and risk management. It advises pilots to use all available weather information, including approved meteorological products, to inform go/no‑go decisions. The bureau also recommends that pilots apply threat‑and‑error management techniques, anticipate hazards such as powerlines and poor visibility, and prioritise safety over logistical or commercial pressures in marginal conditions.

Although a formal Safety Management System (SMS) is not currently required by legislation for balloon operators in the jurisdiction covered by the study, the ATSB recommends operators implement an SMS to provide a structured framework for identifying and managing operational risks.

Industry perspective

Industry operators note that ballooning is operationally distinct from powered aviation. Balloons travel with prevailing winds and pilots influence direction primarily by changing altitude to exploit different wind layers. The introduction of larger balloons that can carry up to 24 passengers has changed the risk profile: larger passenger loads increase potential exposure per flight.

Jay Schesser, head of flying operations for a major balloon operator who carries about 6,000 passengers annually, said every landing is a "calculated risk mitigation process" because of obstacles such as trees, powerlines and shifting winds. He also reported that weather and land access constraints have reduced flying days in some regions, sometimes grounding operations for extended periods when paddocks are too wet or inaccessible.

Bottom line

The ATSB study does not suggest ballooning is inherently unsafe, but it highlights clear, actionable safety gaps: wind and landing management, better pre‑flight planning, consistent use of approved weather products, and wider adoption of formal safety management practices. Addressing these areas could reduce the higher per‑flight incident rate identified by the bureau.