2026 Midterms: Offshore Bettors Favor Democrats To Win Both House And Senate — What The Odds Show

With less than a month until Election Day, offshore bookmakers are pricing Democrats as the favorites to take control of both the U.S. House and Senate, according to William Hill and other markets. The shifts in betting prices reflect strong momentum in Democratic markets for the House and unusual movement in Senate lines driven in part by earlier Republican wagers.

What Oddsmakers Are Saying

Lee Phelps, a spokesman for William Hill, told USA TODAY that Democrats are more heavily favored to win the House at this point in the cycle than at comparable stages of recent midterms. “The punters are in no doubt,” Phelps said, adding that the action on the Senate market was “just as remarkable.”

Key Senate Battlegrounds

Several competitive Senate contests are drawing national attention and shaping market pricing:

• Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D). Peltola, a former congresswoman, would be the first Alaska Native elected to the Senate if successful.
• Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Rep. Mike Collins (R). Collins is a Trump-endorsed challenger; the race has seen intense national scrutiny.
• Iowa: Josh Turek (D) vs. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R). With Sen. Joni Ernst not seeking re-election, this is the state’s first open Senate race since 2014.
• Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Troy Jackson (D). Jackson replaced the Democrats’ original nominee after that candidate withdrew.
• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R). El-Sayed won a contentious Democratic primary and will face Rogers, a former seven-term congressman.
• New Hampshire: John E. Sununu (R) vs. Rep. Chris Pappas (D). Republicans hope Sununu can flip the seat held by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
• North Carolina: Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R). Cooper is running to reclaim a seat in a competitive state.
• Ohio: Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D). Brown is running in a special election to fill the final two years of a vacated term; Husted was appointed to the seat.
• Texas: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D). Paxton won a divisive GOP primary and will face Talarico in a closely watched contest.

House Races To Watch

Oddsmakers also cite several competitive House districts that could determine control of the chamber:

• NY-17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)
• NJ-07: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) vs. Rebecca Bennett (D)
• CO-08: Rep. Gabe Evans (R) vs. Manny Rutinel (D)
• AZ-06: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) vs. JoAnna Mendoza (D)
• PA-07: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. Bob Brooks (D)
• MI-07: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) vs. William Lawrence (D) (plus third-party candidates)
• VA-02: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)
• FL-25: Jared Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R)
• TX-34: Eric Flores (R) vs. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)
• NC-01: Rep. Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout (R)
• WI-03: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. Rebecca Cooke (D)

Betting Lines And Market Dynamics

Phelps noted that Democrats opened at 5/2 on the House outcome (implying roughly a 28% chance) but have been bet down to about 4/9 (roughly a 69% implied probability) — a large move in a short period. That dramatic reversal reflects a surge of money on Democrats in offshore markets.

However, William Hill’s data also show that only about 32% of bets on the Senate have favored Democrats, because many bettors placed earlier odds-on wagers backing Republicans at prices between 1/3 and 8/13. Those earlier positions can keep the Senate market weighted toward Republicans even as prices move.

Why Markets Shifted

Phelps and other market watchers linked recent market volatility to both international and domestic developments, citing the U.S. war on Iran and a spike in diesel prices as factors that have reshaped voter sentiment and campaign dynamics in several states.

Representative Offshore Prices (Reported By Bookmakers)

• Democrats Win House And Senate: -250 / -150 / -210
• Democrats Win House, Republicans Win Senate: +175 / +175 / +185
• Republicans Win House And Senate: +900 / +600 / +1000
• Republicans Win House, Democrats Win Senate: +6600 / +1800 / +6500

These contests and market moves are likely to remain fluid through Election Day as polls, events and money continue to influence prices. The races listed above include many of the most closely watched contests that could determine control of Congress.

U.S. Senate, AlaskaDan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D)Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is defending his seat against Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman. Peltola would be the first Alaska Native to serve in the Senate if she wins in November.(Reuters)

U.S. Senate, GeorgiaJon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R)Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is taking on GOP Rep. Mike Collins, a Trump-endorsed candidate, for a crucial seat in November. The race has captured national attention as Trump has personally attacked Ossoff, while Collins has been swept up in a House ethics investigation and faced questions about his son-in-law, a White nationalist influencer.(Ossoff: Jack Gruber, USA TODAY; Collins: Getty Images)

U.S. Senate, IowaJosh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)Current GOP Sen. Joni Ernst decided not to run for a third term, setting up Iowa’s first open Senate race since 2014. Democratic State Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time gold medalist Paralympian, faces Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV anchor now in her third term in Congress.(Zach Boyden-Holmes, The Des Moines Register via USA TODAY Network)

U.S. Senate, MaineSusan Collins (R) vs Troy Jackson (D)Collins was seen as one of the GOP’s most vulnerable senators in 2026. But Democrats’ efforts to unseat her were complicated when their nominee Graham Platner dropped out of the race amid allegations of sexual assault. Jackson, the former Maine Senate president and logger, was picked to replace Platner.(Collins: Getty Images; Jackson: Reuters)

U.S. Senate, MichiganAbdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)Running on a progressive platform, El-Sayed won a bruising primary that saw much of the Democratic party establishment back his opponent. Rogers, who served seven terms in the House, is making his second bid for a Senate seat after losing to Elissa Slotkin in 2024.(Abdul El-Sayed: Pool Photo; Mike Rogers: Jasper Colt, USA TODAY)

U.S. Senate, New HampshireJohn E. Sununu (R) vs. Chris Pappas (D)Republicans are hoping that former Sen. John Sununu can flip the seat held by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu is endorsed by Trump and won the GOP primary over former Massachusetts Sen. Chris Brown. U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas is the Democratic nominee.(USA TODAY Network)

U.S. Senate, North CarolinaRoy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R)Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a moderate who served two terms, faces off against former Republican National Chair Michael Whatley, a close Trump ally.(Reuters)

U.S. Senate, OhioJon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)Brown, who served three terms in the Senate before losing to Bernie Moreno in 2024, is making a bid to return to Washington in a special election for the final two years of JD Vance’s term. He faces incumbent Husted, who was appointed to fill the vacant Senate seat when Vance became vice president.(USA TODAY Network)

U.S. Senate, TexasKen Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton, Texas’ state attorney general, ousted incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary after receiving Trump’s endorsement. He faces a stiff challenge from state Rep. James Talarico in what will be one of the most closely watched contests of 2026.(Getty Images)

U.S. House, New York’s 17th DistrictCait Conley (D) vs. Rep. Mike Lawler (R)Lawler is defending his House seat, and Conley will challenge him. Lawler, who is typically seen as a moderate, hosted a campaign rally with President Donald Trump in May, despite representing one of the most Democratic-leaning districts held by a Republican.(Getty Images)

U.S. House, New Jersey’s 7th DistrictRep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) vs. Rebecca Bennett (D)Kean is defending his seat after a four-month hiatus from Congress this year without a word from the representative put the race in the spotlight. Kean has since said that depression and hospitalization were to blame for his absence, but Bennett hopes to oust him. The suburban district has been highly competitive in recent years.(Getty Images)

U.S. House, Colorado’s 8th DistrictRep. Gabe Evans (R) vs. state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D)The district, which was created after the 2020 census, is one of the nation’s top battleground districts: Evans won by only 0.8 percentage points in 2024.(Getty Images)

U.S. House, Arizona’s 6th DistrictRep. Juan Ciscomani (R) vs. JoAnna Mendoza (D)Incumbent Ciscomani faces three challengers for his Tucson-area seat, including Navy and Marine Corps veteran Mendoza. The district is a Democratic target that has been closely contested in recent election cycles.(Getty Images)

U.S. House, Pennsylvania’s 7th DistrictRep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. Bob Brooks (D)Mackenzie flipped the district red in 2024, ousting a Democratic incumbent. Brooks is the president of the state’s Professional Fire Fighters Association.(Getty Images)

U.S. House, Michigan’s 7th DistrictRep. Tom Barrett (R) vs. William Lawrence (D, not pictured)Incumbent Barrett faces Democratic challenger William Lawrence. Candidates from the Green Party and Working Class Party are also on the general election ballot. Barrett won the seat in 2024 after Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin vacated it to run for Senate.(Tom Barrett, via Reuters)

U.S. House, Virginia’s 2nd DistrictRep. Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)Virginia Democrats attempted to redraw the state’s 2nd Congressional District, but they were blocked by a court. Still, Democrats are hopeful to win the seat back from Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans with their candidate, former Rep. Elaine Luria, who served the district from 2019-2023 and lost to Kiggans in 2022.(Getty Images, Reuters)

U.S. House, Florida’s 25th DistrictRep. Jared Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R, not pictured)Moskowitzcurrently represents the state’s 23rd District, but after a court-ordered redistricting shuffle, he is running to stay in Congress with the state’s 25th District. Republicans hope their redistricting edge will give their candidate, attorney Scott Singer, a win and a new Republican seat in the House.(Anna Moneymaker, Getty Images)

U.S. House, Texas’ 34th DistrictEric Flores (R) vs. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)After a redistricting shuffle in Texas, Republicans bet that Flores, the former Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas, can secure a new GOP seat and oust incumbent Gonzalez. After 2024 gains with Hispanic voters in the region, Republicans view the district as a pickup opportunity.(Getty Images, Reuters)

U.S. House, North Carolina’s 1st DistrictRep. Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout (R)Davis’ district in North Carolina was redrawn into a more Republican-leaning district, making him a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and Republican candidate, former Army Col. Buckhout, hopes to win his seat.(Getty Images, Reuters)

U.S. House, Wisconsin’s 3rd DistrictRep. Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. Rebecca Cooke (D, not pictured)Van Orden is defending his seat against Cooke, a small business owner. The district was represented from 1997-2023 by Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, and Democrats hope to reclaim it.(Tierney L. Cross, Getty Images)