The latest InsiderAdvantage poll finds Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson tied at 46% among likely Maine voters (sample: 1,200; Sept. 22–23; MOE ±2.83%). Multiple recent polls — including NYT/Siena, University of New Hampshire, Rasmussen, and Quantus — show similarly narrow margins, and the RealClearPolitics average places Jackson about one point ahead. The Cook Political Report rates Maine a Toss Up and cautions that polling in the state is often difficult. With Democrats needing a net gain of four Senate seats, this race could be decisive for control of the chamber.
New Poll: Susan Collins and Troy Jackson Deadlocked in Maine Senate Race
Sen. Susan Collins (Aaron Schwartz/Getty Images)
The U.S. Senate contest in Maine remains razor-close, with a new InsiderAdvantage survey showing Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat challenger Troy Jackson tied less than six weeks before Election Day.
Poll Snapshot
The InsiderAdvantage poll, released Saturday, found both candidates at 46% among likely voters. The survey interviewed 1,200 likely voters from Sept. 22–23 using a mixed text-and-panel methodology and reports a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points. Responses were weighted by age, race, gender and political affiliation.
How This Fits With Other Surveys
The new result adds to a string of narrow measures suggesting Maine could produce one of the country’s tightest Senate races this cycle. Recent polls include:
- A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena College poll (Sept. 15–22) showing Collins 49% and Jackson 46% (within that poll’s margin of error).
- A University of New Hampshire survey (Sept. 17–21) showing Jackson 51% and Collins 47%, described by the pollster as a statistical tie.
- Rasmussen Reports with Jackson ahead 46% to 45%, and a Quantus Insights poll showing Collins 47% to Jackson’s 46%.
- The RealClearPolitics polling average currently lists Jackson at 47.4% and Collins at 46.4% — a margin of roughly one percentage point.
Race Context
Collins, a five-term senator first elected in 1996, is seeking a sixth term. She won reelection in 2020 with 51% despite late-campaign polls showing her trailing Democrat Sara Gideon. Jackson, a former Maine Senate president with deep ties to organized labor, won the Democratic nomination this summer.
The Cook Political Report currently rates Maine as a Toss Up, placing it among the most competitive Senate contests. Cook notes Republicans see Collins’ reputation for protecting Maine’s interests and her occasional departures from former President Donald Trump on issues such as tariffs as strengths with independents, while Democrats argue Jackson can capitalize on the political environment and Collins’ slipping popularity.
Polling caveat: Cook also warns that Maine is a challenging state to poll accurately because of its hard-to-reach rural and working-class voters.
Why It Matters
With Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to win a Senate majority, the Collins–Jackson matchup could play a pivotal role in determining control of the chamber.
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