Collins Narrows Gap With Maine Women Voters, But Kavanaugh Vote Keeps Abortion at Center

Surveys in the weeks leading up to the midterms show Maine Senator Susan Collins making measurable gains with female voters, even as her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh — which opponents link to the overturning of Roe v. Wade — remains a key vulnerability.

Polling Trends

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted Sept. 17–21 found women favoring Democrat Troy Jackson 51% to 47% over Collins. The same survey reported Collins's favorability among women as 40% favorable, 50% unfavorable and 10% neutral. That marks an improvement from July, when UNH found 41% of women saying they planned to vote for Collins versus 54% for Jackson.

An earlier UNH survey from July 15–20, taken before Jackson became the official nominee, showed Collins with an even weaker favorability profile: 34% favorable, 52% unfavorable, 13% neutral and 1% unsure.

Newsweek contacted both the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment.

Why This Race Matters

National forecasters see the House tilted toward Democrats while projecting a tighter battle for the Senate. Outlets such as RaceToTheWH show closer contests for the upper chamber; Democrats would only need to flip a small number of Republican seats to gain control of the Senate for the latter half of President Donald Trump's term, putting competitive races like Maine's in sharper focus.

Troy Jackson listens to a supporter at the Southern Maine Labor Council breakfast in South Portland on September 7, 2026.

Abortion and Political Liability

Collins's reputation as a moderate, bipartisan Republican has helped her retain support among some voters, but her confirmation vote for Kavanaugh remains an attack line for Democrats. In a recent interview, Collins said she did not regret her vote to confirm Kavanaugh despite earlier assurances he would not vote to overturn Roe.

Jackson, at a town hall reported by MS Now, said of Collins's comment: "It says everything to me because I sure as hell do, and everybody else in this state and everybody else in this country does."

Outside Spending and Endorsements

Planned Parenthood announced in August that its super PAC, Planned Parenthood Votes, would spend "over $600,000" on an ad campaign highlighting Maine voters' disapproval of Collins's votes on abortion-related issues, including her Kavanaugh vote. Jackson, who opposed abortion access earlier in his career, has since shifted his stance: he has held a 100% rating from the Planned Parenthood Maine Action Fund since 2017 and earned endorsements from pro-choice groups such as Reproductive Freedom for All.

Competitive Polling and Local Tensions

Polls have varied: since becoming the Democratic nominee, Jackson has led in most major surveys tracked by The New York Times, though many leads are within margins of error. A recent New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll gave Collins a narrow 3-point edge (49% to 46%, with 5% undecided), underscoring how close the race remains.

On Monday, a Maine lawmaker posted a photo showing graffiti — the words "Trump W***e" spray-painted in red — on Collins's field office in Biddeford. "Vandalism is unacceptable," Collins's chief of staff Katie Brown told Fox News Digital, adding that the senator and her staff "will not be intimidated" and that the office "remains open." Jackson also condemned the vandalism, saying there is "no place for this in Maine." Newsweek reached out to the Biddeford Police Department for comment.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Sam Wilson.