The latest Quantus Insights poll finds Democrat James Talarico at 43% and Republican Ken Paxton at 45% in the tightest statewide contest in Texas. The survey of 800 likely voters (June 3–4, ±3.5 points) highlights a stark demographic split: Paxton’s base is older, rural and conservative, while Talarico draws younger, urban and college‑educated voters. Prediction markets still favor Paxton roughly 59–60% to Talarico’s ~41%, though Talarico’s odds have risen sharply since January.
Talarico Narrows Gap With Paxton In Texas Senate Race — Poll Shows 43% to 45% Split
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, waves as he takes the stage during a primary runoff election night event after winning the Republican Party’s nomination Tuesday, May 26, 2026, in Plano, Texas; James Talarico, a Texas Democratic primary candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks during an event, Sunday, March 1, 2026, in San Antonio, Texas.
Democratic challenger James Talarico is closing the margin on Republican Ken Paxton in the competitive race for the U.S. Senate in Texas, according to a new Quantus Insights poll.
The survey, conducted June 3–4 among 800 likely Texas voters (±3.5 percentage points), finds Talarico, a 37‑year‑old state representative and former public school teacher, at 43 percent and Paxton, the 63‑year‑old Texas attorney general, at 45 percent — a narrow, two‑point lead for Paxton.
Closest Statewide Race
Quantus notes the Senate contest is the tightest statewide matchup in Texas so far. Other statewide races show clearer Republican leads: Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 41% (6% undecided); Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Vikki Goodwin 49% to 40%; and attorney general frontrunner Mayes Middleton leads Nathan Johnson 47% to 39% (9% undecided).
Different Coalitions, Deeper Divide
The pollster’s memo frames the contest as reflecting an ideological and demographic split across the state — what it calls “a contest between two different Texases.” Paxton’s coalition skews older, male, white, rural and anchored in the Republican base. Talarico’s strength is concentrated among younger voters, urban residents, college‑educated voters, Black voters and persuadable swing voters.
“Texas remains Republican country. But in the opening stage of the 2026 general election, it is not without contest,” the pollster memo reads.
Prediction Markets Still Favor Paxton
Despite the close polling, prediction markets currently favor Paxton. As of Saturday morning, roughly 59–60% of bets on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket back Paxton, while about 40–41% support Talarico. Betting markets have shifted significantly since January: Talarico’s implied chance rose from under 20% to over 40%, while Paxton’s perceived likelihood fell from above 80% earlier in the year.
What This Means: The poll shows a competitive Senate race that could hinge on turnout among younger, urban and college‑educated voters. While Republicans retain advantages across most statewide contests today, Talarico’s gains and the changing betting market signal a race worth watching through the summer and into November.
Methodology: Quantus Insights surveyed 800 likely voters in Texas from June 3–4; margin of error ±3.5 percentage points.
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