Democrat James Talarico is mounting a credible challenge to Republican Ken Paxton as fast-growing Dallas–Fort Worth suburbs tilt toward the Democrats. Paxton’s personal and political controversies, including a 2025 divorce petition and past impeachment, have unsettled some GOP voters. Tight polls (ReconMR 49%–43%; Emerson 47%–46%) and a $100 million Republican ad push underscore how competitive the race has become. Historical statewide Republican strength still presents a major hurdle for Democrats.
Texas Suburbs Give James Talarico a Real Shot at Unseating Ken Paxton
(AP)
Relatively rapid population growth, major corporate relocations and shifting voter attitudes in recent years have combined to give Democrat James Talarico a credible path to defeating Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
Why the Dallas–Fort Worth Suburbs Matter
The Dallas–Fort Worth suburbs — once a reliably Republican stronghold — now account for nearly one-quarter of Texas' votes and have become a critical battleground. Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties together supplied almost 25% of the state’s 2024 presidential electorate, making suburban trends decisive in any statewide contest.
Paxton's Political Headwinds
Several Republicans interviewed by The Texas Tribune say Paxton’s personal and political controversies have unsettled traditional GOP voters, especially suburban women. Notable developments include a 2025 divorce petition in which his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, cited adultery; a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House followed by acquittal in the state Senate; and securities-fraud charges that were dismissed in 2024 after an agreement requiring restitution and community service, with no admission of guilt.
“This is truly the first time I’ve felt in my bones we could lose the Texas House, and we could lose a statewide seat,”
Polling, Spending and the Republican Response
Recent public surveys have shown Talarico narrowly ahead in some measures — though several leads fall within or near usual margins of error. A ReconMR poll found Talarico leading 49% to 43%, and an Emerson College survey put him at 47% versus Paxton’s 46%. Fearing a competitive race, Republican-aligned groups have ramped up spending: the Senate Leadership Fund increased its planned Texas ad buy to $100 million to bolster Paxton, an unusually large commitment in a state Republicans have not lost statewide in more than three decades.
Historical Headwinds for Democrats
History remains a significant obstacle. Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost Texas by 2.6 percentage points in 2018 despite major suburban gains; Joe Biden lost the state by about five points in 2020; and Democrat Colin Allred fell short in his 2024 Senate bid even while running competitively in suburbs. Those results underscore that suburban gains alone may not guarantee statewide victory for Democrats.
What To Watch Next
Key factors to monitor include turnout among suburban women and other swing voters, how effectively Paxton’s campaign reframes the race around his record (citing consumer-protection suits and children’s-safety initiatives), and whether Republican spending can consolidate hesitant GOP voters. As lifelong Republican Darlene Stanaland put it, “He at least fights for Texas.” How persuasive that message proves in suburbs where voters are reevaluating party loyalty could decide the outcome.
Reporting and polling details cited from The Texas Tribune, ReconMR and Emerson College. © 2026 Newsmax.
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